Just Energy heading towards another recapitalization

Failing to predict a changing climate, the global warming armageddon consumes another victim. The Texas Winter Freeze has impacted Just Energy (TSX: JE), which announced today:

The financial impact of the Weather Event is not currently known due to challenges the Company is experiencing in obtaining accurate information regarding customers’ usage from the applicable utilities. However, unless there is corrective action by the Texas government, because of, among other things, the sustained high prices from February 13, 2021 through February 19, 2021, during which real time market prices were artificially set at USD $9,000/MWh for much of the week, it is likely that the Weather Event has resulted in a substantial negative financial impact to the Company. Based on current information available to the Company as of the time of this press release, the Company estimates that the financial impact of the Weather Event on the Company could be a loss of approximately USD $250 million (approximately CAD $315 million), but the financial impact could change as additional information becomes available to the Company. Accordingly, the financial impact of the Weather Event on the Company once known, could be materially adverse to the Company’s liquidity and its ability to continue as a going concern. The Company is in discussions with its key stakeholders regarding the impact of the Weather Event and will provide an update as appropriate.

Just Energy is in the business of selling fixed price energy contracts. For instance, if energy is selling at $2/GJ at spot, they will typically offer a 5-year fixed energy contract where they will sell it to you at $3.5/GJ. The same thing goes for electricity sales.

Presumably they hedge these contracts using energy future swaps or some other mechanism, but there are long-tailed events that you can’t possibly hedge for. Similar to those that sold call options on Gamestop, Just Energy is now caught in one hell of a margin squeeze. The only difference is that their “accounts payable” is not instantly due from their brokers, but rather due on their next payment installments to the local utility provider, which doesn’t really care about Just Energy’s predicament other than the fact that they can’t pay the gigantic bill owing.

The shares are still trading at a market capitalization of $250 million, so clearly the market is anticipating that perhaps not all is lost.

Will be interesting to see how this one resolves itself!

Just Energy – the conclusion to the recapitalization

In regards to Just Energy (TSX: JE), after a suspenseful suspension of the recapitalization proposal meeting, a couple days later an agreement with substantially most of the shareholders and debtholders was struck.

On August 26, there was agreement to amend the following:

* pay accrued and unpaid interest in cash on the Subordinated Convertible Debentures until closing of the Recapitalization,
* issue C$15 million principal amount of new subordinated notes (the “New Subordinated Notes”) to holders of the Subordinated Convertible Debentures, which New Subordinated Notes will have a six-year maturity and will bear an annual interest rate of 7% (which shall only be payable in kind semi-annually),
* pay certain expenses of the ad hoc group of convertible debenture holders, and
* issue approximately C$3.67 million of common shares by way of an additional private placement to the Company’s term loan lenders at the same subscription price available to all securityholders pursuant to the New Equity Subscription Offering, proceeds of which will partially offset the incremental cash costs noted above.

All other terms of the Recapitalization remain unchanged.

The cash interest payment will save the debentureholders about (JE.DB.C) 1% and (JE.DB.D) 3% of par, and the $15 million debt issuance, assuming par, will be another 6 cents on the dollar. Debentures did jump up by a factor of 2 upon the recapitalization, and so did the preferred shares – clearly both classes were anticipating a CCAA proceeding.

The common shares also jumped upon the news, but traded lower from the morning spike throughout the day after approval.

Now, what is odd is that the news of the amended terms of recapitalization, coupled with the voting support agreements came by way of press release on August 26, at 8:27am, eastern time. The actual approval came on August 27, 5:32pm (after market close). On the morning of August 28, trading spiked up. There was a full two trading days where if one was alert, you could have sucked up a few bits of liquidity on the common shares and debentures:

Volume, August 26:
JE: 505,700 shares, VWAP 0.4315
JE.PR.U: 41,000 shares, VWAP 0.9997 (note: par value $25)
JE.DB.C: 113,000 par, VWAP 16.687
JE.DB.D: 139,000 par, VWAP 16.22

Volume, August 27:
JE: 349,850 shares, VWAP 0.4023
JE.PR.U: 100 shares @ 1.16
JE.DB.C: 93,000 par, VWAP 17.442
JE.DB.D: 18,000 par, VWAP 16.914

Dollar-wise, while we’re not talking about gigantic amounts of money, but for the small guppies out there, you could have made quite a few sushi dinners out of the gains from sucking up 5-10% of the average volume. Sadly I was asleep at the switch as well.

No positions, but this was rather fascinating to watch.

Just Energy – Unjust Recapitalization

I wrote about Just Energy (TSX: JE) last December after they suspended their preferred share dividends and were obviously awaiting a recapitalization.

A memory refresher on their debt structure:

A couple days ago the proposal came out.

Given all of the classes of debt, this is a messy proposal to read through all the relevant terms. It involves a debt/preferred share conversion, a 33:1 reverse split, and then a follow-on offering of equity.

* Exchange of C$100 million 6.75% subordinated convertible debentures due March 31, 2023 (TSX: JE.DB.D) and C$160 million 6.75% subordinated convertible debentures due December 31, 2021 (TSX: JE.DB.C) (the “Subordinated Convertible Debentures”) for new common equity;
* Extension of C$335 million credit facilities by three years to December 2023, with revised covenants and a schedule of commitment reductions throughout the term;
* Existing senior unsecured term loan due September 12, 2023 (the “Existing Term Loan”) and the remaining convertible bonds due December 31, 2020 (the “Eurobond”) shall be exchanged for a New Term Loan due March 2024 with initial interest to be paid-in-kind and new common equity;
* Exchange of all 8.50%, fixed-to-floating rate, cumulative, redeemable, perpetual preferred shares (JE.PR.U) (the “Preferred Shares) into new common equity;
* New cash equity investment commitment of C$100 million;
* Initial reduction of annual cash interest expense by approximately C$45 million; and
* Business as usual for employees, customers and suppliers enhanced by the relationship with a financially stronger Just Energy – they will not be affected by the Recapitalization.

In total, the Recapitalization will result in a reduction of approximately C$535 million in net debt and preferred shares.

Translated:

1. Convert C$260 million of convertible debt into equity
2. Convert US$117 million par of preferred shares = ~CAD$160 million in equity
3. Add CAD$100 million in equity financing
4. Convert ~CAD$15 million in the “Eurobond” to equity

This is where they get the bulk of the CAD$535 million figure from – from the publicly traded JE.DB.C/D and JE.PR.U securities.

None of the other tranches of debt receive a haircut – instead, they get extended. I will note that the holders of debt is that is the (unlisted) US$207 million unsecured term loan receives relatively preferential treatment in this recapitalization. The likely reasons for this: “The US$14 million draws were secured by a personal guarantee from a director of the
Company.”, and the fact that this tranche of debt was loaned from Sagard Credit, who is backstopping the equity offering.

The CAD$260 convertible debentures will be converted into 56.7% of the equity of the company, prior to the CAD$100 million equity financing.

JE this second is trading at 49 cents per share. At their existing market cap, JE equity is valued at $74.3 million. Convertible debt holders are being asked to convert CAD$260 million into $42 million of pre-diluted equity. This would also explain why the debentures presently are trading at about 18 cents on the dollar.

Preferred shareholders receive 9.5%, and this works out to 4.4 cents on the dollar. This class of shareholder is lucky to get anything.

The common shareholders will retain 28.8% of the company, and they should be even luckier to hold onto anything.

The convertible debentures are subordinated unsecured obligations of the company, which means that they are the lowest tranche of debt in the pecking order. However, the convertible debentures upon maturity can be converted into shares of JE with a standard VWAP clause:

The Corporation may, at its option, on not more than 60 days and not less than 30 days prior notice, subject to applicable regulatory approval and provided no Event of Default has occurred and is continuing, elect to satisfy its obligation to repay all or any portion of the principal amount of the Debentures that are to be redeemed or that are to mature, by issuing and delivering to the holders thereof that number of freely tradeable Common Shares determined by dividing the principal amount of the Debentures being repaid by 95% of the Current Market Price on the date of redemption or maturity, as applicable.

Presumably, if the convertible debentures were allowed to be exchanged for shares under this formula they would be receiving more than 56.7% of the pre-diluted equity. This is not allowed to happen because the senior creditors (the facility due on September 1, 2020) want to squeeze them out for a lot less.

This is what I’d call a fairly “unjust” recapitalization of Just. Caveat Emptor for those that were holding onto any of these securities! In particular, the purchasers of the February 22, 2018 offering of the 6.75% convertible debentures have realized an approximate 70% loss in their investment over the 2 years they’ve been holding it, which is fairly impressive.

No positions, never had any, do not intend on taking any either, and also commend management for ruthlessly taking out more retail capital – this is a textbook case.

Just Energy takes a dive

If you were holding preferred shares in Just Energy (TSX: JE.PR.U), you don’t want to be reading this announcement:

Just Energy Group Inc. (“Just Energy” or the “Company”) (TSX:JE) (NYSE:JE) announced today that it has amended its senior secured credit facility to increase the senior debt to EBITDA covenant ratio from 1.50:1 to 2.00:1 for the third quarter of Fiscal 2020. In addition, the Company has amended the covenants on its senior unsecured term loan facility to increase the senior debt to EBITDA covenant ratio from 1.65:1 to 2.15:1 for the third quarter of Fiscal 2020. Both changes are effective only for the third quarter of Fiscal 2020 and the covenants will revert to the prior levels following December 31, 2019.

In connection with the amendments, the agreements governing both facilities have been changed to restrict the declaration and payment of dividends on the Company’s 8.50% Series A Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Shares (“Series A Preferred Shares”) until the Company’s senior debt to EBITDA ratio is no more than 1.50:1 for two consecutive fiscal quarters. Accordingly, the Company is suspending, with immediate effect, the declaration and payment of dividends on the Series A Preferred Shares until the Company is permitted to declare and pay dividends under the agreements governing its facilities. However, dividends on the Series A Preferred Shares will continue to accrue in accordance with Series A Preferred Share terms during the period in which dividends are suspended.

Preferred shares proceeded to trade from $17 the day before to closing at $9.88, a 42% drop. The common stock, which paid out its last dividend in June 2019, traded down about 16%.

I did remark about Just Energy on September 1, 2019 that “Balance sheet is a train wreck, company is exploring a recapitalization, and the business model itself is highly broken. Good luck!”, but specifically, their big problem is this:

About $222 million is due for refinancing in the year 2020, with the lion’s share the first-in-line secured credit facility that has $203 outstanding.

It is pretty evident by the covenant amendment that the third quarter expectations (noting that Just Energy has their fiscal year-end on March) is not going to have a good quarter. They’ve bought themselves a little bit of time to negotiate with the senior secured creditors, but suffice to say, this one is trading low on all fronts (common, preferred and debentures) for a good reason – a recapitalization is probably in order.

In general, I’m not shocked that the market was valuing the yield on a financial product of a company that is in such precarious financial condition quite highly; the chase for yield blinds most individuals as the underlying framework as to what makes yields possible – cash flow and no imminent liquidity crises. These sorts of decisions that companies make are relatively foreseeable and why I do not have them in my portfolio.

The convertible debentures (TSX: JE.DB.C, JE.DB.D) came up on my radar today as a result. The company cannot suspend their semi-annual interest payment without it being an event of default, but right now the most likely outcome appears to be an equity conversion, and this is under the assumption they can come to some sort of arrangement to placate their senior secured creditor.

The most interesting part of this all is that the company also has a tranche of unsecured term loan facility (8.75% maturing on September 2023) which is partially guaranteed by a director: “On July 29, 2019, the Company drew US$7.0 million from the second tranche and US$7.0 million from the third tranche. These draws were secured by a personal guarantee from a director of the Company.” – this would certainly give this director an incentive to seeing the company not default on it!

TSX Exchange-traded debt review

I have made some corrections to my initial TSX Exchange-traded debt spreadsheet. So far, this is turning out to be a great replacement for the old one that used to be at the old Financial Post website before it got taken down.

In terms of valuations, none of them appear to be errantly priced where I am tempted to dive in. The ones trading well under par are either visibly insolvent or marijuana companies. In either instance, purchasers of the debentures are likely to lose capital. The best of the worst of them appear to be DHX Media (TSX: DHX.DB) and Just Energy (TSX: JE.DB.C/D) but both of these businesses have issues which make the double-digit YTM warranted.

If your goal with these instruments is to make a relatively easy 5%, however, there are plenty of quality selections to be made, although I’d make the argument that for a non-tax sheltered account you would be much better off with preferred shares.