Genworth MIC potentially on the selling block

Genworth Financial (NYSE: GNW) owns 57% of Genworth MI (TSX: MIC). GNW has also been subject to a merger agreement with a China-state owned entity, China Oceanwide, which proposed acquiring GNW for US$5.43/share. One of the conditions is the approval of the various regulatory authorities. The key stumbling block appears to be the Canadian regulator, and as a result, GNW is proposing to explore selling the MIC entity.

There are two questions. One is who would purchase MIC, and the second is the valuation. Surely the acquirer would have to be a Canadian entity – my guess is that the CPPIB or provincial pension arms would be ripe candidates (which would ensure that substantially all of the Canadian mortgage insurance market is held by crown corporations). There are not a lot of insurers that would have the capacity to take on MIC – obvious candidates include MFC, SLF, GWO, FFH or IFC.

The market is up about 4% for MIC presently. There’s a pretty good case to be made that the transaction, if it were to occur, would have a fair value higher than the presently selling stock price, but I don’t see any potential acquirers over-reaching beyond CAD$50/share or so (which I think is the price that GNW will want to get). It just depends on how badly GNW wants this merger to complete – a purchase of GNW presently would gain 46% in value if the merger was completed – and they have huge issues of their own with respect to their long-term care insurance liabilities.

Market is predicting Genworth Financial’s merger with China Oceanwide will fail

The market is projecting that Genworth’s (NYSE: GNW) US$5.43/share cash merger with China Oceanwide will fail:

The issue revolves around the insurance unit that contains their long-term care insurance liabilities – the theory would be that the Genworth is unlikely to obtain state approvals without taking the full burden of the LTC division.

The salient part of a piece of nearly unreadable verbiage from the finalized merger proxy form is the following:

In addition, it is a condition to the obligations of Asia Pacific and Merger Sub to consummate the merger that certain affiliates of Genworth shall have received regulatory approval (or non-disapproval, in certain instances) from the Delaware Department of Insurance and the Virginia Bureau of Insurance to effect the U.S. Life Restructuring, including the unstacking and the following intercompany reinsurance and recapture transactions between GLAIC and GLIC: (i) a reinsurance transaction pursuant to which GLIC will reinsure certain long-term care insurance business from GLAIC (which we refer to as the “Long Term Care Reinsurance Transaction”); (ii) separate reinsurance transactions pursuant to which GLAIC will reinsure from GLIC (A) certain universal life insurance business and term life insurance business, (B) certain company-owned life insurance business and (C) certain single-premium deferred annuity business, single-premium immediate annuity business, structured settlement annuity business and fixed annuity business (which we refer to as the “Life Restructuring Reinsurance Transactions”); and (iii) a transaction pursuant to which GLIC will recapture from GLAIC certain single-premium deferred annuity business that is currently reinsured by GLAIC from GLIC (which we refer to as the “Recapture Transaction”). GLIC and GLAIC have received approvals for the Long Term Care Reinsurance Transaction from the Delaware Department of Insurance and the Virginia Bureau of Insurance and completed the transaction effective November 1, 2016. Genworth made regulatory filings with respect to the unstacking with the Delaware Department of Insurance on December 21, 2016 and the Virginia Bureau of Insurance on January 3, 2017. Genworth made regulatory filings with respect to the Life Restructuring Reinsurance Transactions and the Recapture Transaction with the Delaware Department of Insurance and the Virginia Bureau of Insurance on December 16, 2016. In addition, the merger agreement provides that Genworth, in consultation with China Oceanwide and applicable insurance regulators, may explore the feasibility of the transfer of GLAIC’s 34.5% ownership interest in GLICNY to GLIC and, if approval from such regulators is received, to pursue such transfer.

If, for whatever reason, you believe these applications will succeed, then there is a very easy method to turn $3.30/share into $5.43/share in less than six months. Won’t tell you what I think, but I’ve been digging.

Details of Genworth Financial merger

There are lots of juicy details of the merger proposal with Genworth Financial in their preliminary proxy filing. In particular there are some hints that Genworth MI in Canada will get sold off whether this merger is successful or not.

Despite all short-sellers and naysayers believing that the Canadian housing market is going to crap, Genworth MI continues to appreciate post-Trump and is still trading 10% below their book value. They’ll continue to be mystified when the stock will break through its all-time highs it reached back in November 2014:

Not coincidentally, that’s when I last sold shares. I will note the price has been adjusted multiple times due to their rather large dividend (currently $1.76/share), and whether the Genworth Financial merger is successful or not, it is quite probable that Genworth MI Canada will be sold for as much as can be sought for it, because doing so before the Canadian housing market collapses is the only smart thing to do.

In terms of valuation, one can make a good claim for over CAD$40/share.

The market is also not appreciating at all the notion that mortgage insurance rates will be headed higher in early 2017 due to capital changes. The last time mortgage insurance rates went higher, the stock went up about 10%.

They are also somewhat buoyed by the “good politics, bad policy” decision by the BC government to extend a 5-year interest-free loan, matching dollar-for-dollar on the first 5% of a downpayment (for an insured mortgage). It would be a poor decision for a prospective buyer in BC to not take advantage of this, but they would need to pay mortgage insurance to do so.

Genworth Financial / Long-Term Care Insurance

For those of you that are interested in why Genworth Financial (NYSE: GNW) is willing to be bought out at US$5.43/share when their book value is far, far higher should take notice of this following Wall Street Journal article about the woes of another long-term care insurance provider that went belly-up.

Putting a long story short, there is an accounting mismatch – the liabilities on the book are less than what the actual liabilities will be.

There has been a lot of incorrect analysis (especially on Seeking Alpha) on the actual value of the holding company. In general when one sees sloppy analysis that is regarded as consensus, there is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for an investment decision in the contrary.

Genworth Financial bought out

Imagine my initial surprise when I saw a news feed that Genworth had been bought out. Unfortunately for me, it was Genworth Financial (NYSE: GNW) and not Genworth MI (TSX: MIC).

Genworth Financial is being taken over by China Oceanwide Holdings, chaired by Lu Zhiqiang, who apparently has a networth of $5 billion.

In the press release, there are scant details. They mentioned the buyout price and the intention of the purchaser to inject $1.1 billion of capital into Genworth to offset an upcoming 2018 bond maturity and shore up the life insurance subsidiary, but the release also explicitly stated a key point:

China Oceanwide has no current intention or future obligation to contribute additional capital to support Genworth’s legacy LTC business.

The LTC (long-term care) insurance business is what got Genworth into trouble in the first place, and its valuation is the primary reason why the company’s stated book value is substantially higher than its market value.

The press release also declared that this is primarily a financial acquisition rather than a strategic one, with management and operations being intact.

One wonders how long this will last.

Since Genworth Financial controls 57% of Genworth MI, it leads to the question of what the implications for the mortgage insurance industry will be – and it is not entirely clear to me up-front what these implications may be. Will the government of Canada be comfortable of 1/3rd of their country’s mortgage insurance being operated by a Chinese-owned entity? What is the financial incentive for China Oceanwide’s dealings with the mortgage insurance arms of Genworth Financial (noting they also own a majority stake in Australia’s mortgage insurance division)?

One thought that immediately comes to mind is that if Genworth Financial is not capital-starved, they will no longer be looking at ways to milking their subsidiaries for capital. In particular, if Genworth MI decides to do a share repurchase, they might opt to concentrate on buying back the public float (currently trading at a huge discount to book value) instead of proportionately allocating 57% of their buyback to their own shares (in effect, giving the parent company a dividend). This would be an incremental plus for Genworth MI.

Finally, one wonders what risks may lie in the acquisition closing – while it is scheduled for mid-2017, this is not a slam dunk by any means. Genworth Financial announced significant charges relating to the modelling of the actual expense profile of their LTC business and it is not surprising that they decided to sell out at the relatively meager price they did – there’s probably worse to come in the future.

However, as far as Genworth MI is concerned, right now it is business as usual. There hasn’t been anything posted to the SEC yet that will give me any more colour, but I am eager to read it.

(Update, early Monday morning: Genworth 8-K with fine-print of agreement)

Yes, I’ve read the document. Am I the only person on the planet that reads this type of stuff at 4:00am in the morning with my french-press coffee? Also, do they purposefully design these legal documents to be as inconveniently formatted as possible, i.e. no carriage returns or tabs at all?

A lot of standard clauses here, but some pertaining to subsidiary companies (including Genworth MI), including:

(page 47): Section 6.1,

the Company will not and will not permit its Subsidiaries (subject to the terms of the provisos in the definition of “Subsidiary” in Article X) to:

(viii) reclassify, split, combine, subdivide or redeem, purchase or otherwise acquire, directly or indirectly, any of its capital stock or securities convertible or exchangeable into or exercisable for any shares of its capital stock (other than

(A) the withholding of shares to satisfy withholding Tax obligations

(1) in respect of Company Equity Awards outstanding as of the date of this Agreement in accordance with their terms and, as applicable, the Stock Plans, in each case in effect on the date of this Agreement or
(2) in respect of equity awards issued by, or stock-based employee benefit plans of, the Specified Entities in their respective Ordinary Course of Business and

(B) the repurchase of shares of capital stock of Genworth Australia or Genworth Canada by Genworth Australia or Genworth Canada, as applicable, pursuant to share repurchase programs in effect as of the date hereof (or renewals thereof on substantially similar terms) with respect to such entities in accordance with their terms);

(note: Genworth MI’s NCIB expires on May 4, 2017)

(page 53): (e) During the period from the date hereof to the Effective Time or earlier termination of this Agreement, except as set forth on Section 6.1(e) of the Company Disclosure Letter, or as required by applicable Law or the rules of any stock exchange, the Company shall not, and shall cause any of its Subsidiaries that are record or beneficial owners of any capital stock of or equity interest in Genworth Canada or any of its Subsidiaries not to, without Parent’s prior written consent (which consent, in the case of clauses (ii)(B) and (iii) below (and, to the extent applicable to either clause (ii)(B) or clause (iii) below, clause (iv) below) shall not be unreasonably withheld, conditioned or delayed):

or (z) any share repurchases that would not decrease the percentage of the outstanding voting stock of Genworth Canada owned by the Company and its Subsidiaries as of the date hereof)

(note: Hmmm… this does open the door for repurchases).

I’m still unsure of the final implication on Genworth MI other than the fact that if this merger proceeds that the parent company is going to lean less on their subsidiaries for capital.