I am not a large believer in technical analysis providing predictive value, but the pattern-seeking eye sees the following trend in the S&P 500 over the past 6 weeks:
We see a downtrend channel. Is this part of a trading range?
Volatility only saw a very brief spike up in March, primarily due to the Japanese earthquake:
We add these two together and see a marketplace betting on a trading range. The swing traders at this point are likely the ones to end up making the money, rather than the trend followers. Not a good time to be taking risk.
What was the big winner in 2011? Oddly enough, nothing more than the 30-year US treasury bond:
