How to deal with the black swan market event

Although the trigger of this recent trend down in the markets feels like it stemmed from the Japanese earthquake, it appeared to start with the civil unrest in Egypt.

The Nikkei today is staging a comeback – up about 6% after yesterday’s panic volatility that took the index a further 20% down before bouncing back. International traders presumably are mining their selections of Japanese equities. I will provide a list of directly (from the NYSE and NASDAQ, although Interactive Brokers clients have direct access to Japanese equity markets):

Company Name Symbol Sector
ADVANTEST CORP ATE Electronic Technology
CANON INC CAJ Electronic Technology
HITACHI LTD HIT Producer Manufacturing
HONDA MOTOR CO LTD HMC Consumer Durables
INTERNET INITIATIVE JAPAN INC IIJI Technology Services
KONAMI CORP KNM Consumer Durables
KUBOTA CORP KUB Producer Manufacturing
KYOCERA CORP KYO Electronic Technology
MAKITA CORP MKTAY Consumer Durables
MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INC MTU Finance
MITSUI & CO LTD MITSY Distribution Services
MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP INC MFG Finance
NIDEC CORP NJ Producer Manufacturing
NIPPON TELEGRAPH & TELEPHONE CORP NTT Communications
NOMURA HOLDINGS INC NMR Finance
NTT DOCOMO INC DCM Communications
ORIX CORP IX Finance
PANASONIC CORP PC Electronic Technology
SONY CORP SNE Consumer Durables
SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP INC SMFG Finance
TOYOTA MOTOR CORP TM Consumer Durables
WACOAL HOLDINGS CORP WACLY Consumer Non-Durables

Very quickly mining the selections above (which generally represent global large-capitalized Japanese companies), Kyocera appears to have decent value, with similar valuations to the old-school technology index.

However, investors should be cautioned that they are not nearly out of the woods yet – the civil disruptions in Northern Africa and the Japanese earthquake could be the trigger to a prolonged downslide in the markets. It is very difficult to determine whether now, a moment of relative uncertainty, is a good time to jump in, or whether the markets will reward the patient.

I’m choosing to be patient. My portfolio has been extremely defensive and I continue to wait with a large amount of cash and cash-like instruments that are uncorrelated to the woes of the equity marketplace.

Some might argue that the damage has all been priced in – my guess is that there will be damage to the market beyond the immediate economic impacts of geopolitical uncertainty and natural disasters that we have seen over the past month.