Canadian Interest Rate Projections

The following are the projected 3-month interest rates, determined by the 3-month Bankers’ Acceptance Futures… note that these are quoted in 100 minus the percentage rate expected, so 97 would be equal to 3%. My gut instinct would suggest that the March and June contracts are slightly undervalued, but well within a margin of error. Essentially this is a bet on whether the Bank of Canada will stick by its conditional June 2010 deadline before it will consider raising interest rates:

Month / Strike Bid Price Ask Price Settl. Price Net Change Vol.
+ 09 DE 99.560 99.565 99.565 0.000 5301
+ 10 JA 0.000 0.000 99.545 0.000 0
+ 10 FE 0.000 0.000 99.525 0.000 0
+ 10 MR 99.510 99.520 99.510 0.010 3909
+ 10 JN 99.330 99.340 99.330 0.000 13737
+ 10 SE 98.910 98.920 98.910 0.000 5674
+ 10 DE 98.450 98.490 98.470 0.050 2102
+ 11 MR 98.120 98.130 98.130 0.040 945
+ 11 JN 97.720 97.820 97.810 0.030 429
+ 11 SE 97.410 97.500 97.500 -0.010 150
+ 11 DE 97.090 97.190 97.260 -0.040 75
+ 12 MR 96.870 96.950 96.960 0.010 7
+ 12 JN 96.670 96.770 96.790 -0.020 46
+ 12 SE 96.550 96.650 96.690 -0.050 32
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