The glacial speed of quantitative tightening

Bank of Canada bond holdings

MaturityCoupon rateISINPar valueOf which on repo
2024-02-010.75CA135087M9203,566,474,000
2024-03-012.25CA135087J5466,611,368,00095,000,000
2024-04-010.25CA135087L69023,275,739,0001,775,000,000
2024-05-011.5CA135087N4231,005,000,000
2024-06-012.5CA135087B4516,304,081,00030,000,000
2024-09-011.5CA135087J96710,042,352,0001,352,000,000
2024-10-010.75CA135087M5084,062,206,000572,000,000
2025-03-011.25CA135087K52812,055,174,000643,000,000
2025-04-011.5CA135087N340600,000,000
2025-06-019CA135087VH40545,039,00031,000,000
2025-06-012.25CA135087D5074,281,933,000
2025-09-010.5CA135087K94025,819,675,000
2026-03-010.25CA135087L51820,536,229,000362,000,000
2026-06-011.5CA135087E6797,715,229,000244,000,000
2026-09-011CA135087L9308,403,101,000435,000,000
2026-12-014.25CA135087VS05440,000,000
2027-03-011.25CA135087M8472,194,445,000
2027-06-018CA135087VW172,454,089,000
2027-06-011CA135087F8258,534,306,0001,091,000,000
2028-06-012CA135087H2358,435,363,000
2029-06-015.75CA135087WL434,909,719,000
2029-06-012.25CA135087J3977,890,136,000169,000,000
2030-06-011.25CA135087K37917,477,505,000
2030-12-010.5CA135087L44317,051,478,000
2031-06-011.5CA135087M27610,856,641,000
2031-12-011.5CA135087N2663,648,167,000
2031-12-014CA135087WV25406,000,000
2032-06-012CA135087N597595,000,000
2033-06-015.75CA135087XG495,099,690,0005,000,000
2036-12-013CA135087XQ21440,000,000
2037-06-015CA135087XW987,740,024,000880,000,000
2041-06-014CA135087YQ126,953,855,000
2041-12-012CA135087YK42429,000,000
2044-12-011.5CA135087ZH04424,600,000
2045-12-013.5CA135087ZS688,925,652,000
2047-12-011.25CA135087B949392,700,000
2048-12-012.75CA135087D3586,371,150,000
2050-12-010.5CA135087G99776,000,000
2051-12-012CA135087H72218,006,997,000
2053-12-011.75CA135087M6802,965,110,000
2064-12-012.75CA135087C9392,194,182,000
279,735,409,0007,684,000,000

In 2024, $55 billion will mature, and in 2025, $43 billion, in addition to a couple billion in mortgage bonds. This is still below the $130 billion that are held in reserves at the bank, but at the rate things are going, coupled with projected deficits of the Government of Canada, means the reserves will be drained out sometime in 2025. Things will indeed get interesting once again, but it will require patience. That said, anticipation of illiquidity may cause it to occur earlier!