AcuityAds Holdings

I was looking at Atlantic Power (NYSE: AT, TSX: ATP) but accidentally typed in AT on the TSX, which is AcuityAds (TSX: AT). I saw the following chart:

They have nearly quadrupled their market value in about three months.

This got my interest (considering I’ve made the same error before in typing in the ticker, I generally saw a flat chart before). I didn’t see anything relevant in the financial statements – it was pretty sedated although they’ve been reasonably decent on cost controls from the first half of 2019 to 2020. I also tried to see why they spiked in July, but couldn’t find anything of relevance other than a remarkably increased amount of receivables collection in the first half, to the tune of about $6 million free cash flow.

Is this worth a market capitalization of $200 million? I don’t know much about exactly what they do (a bunch of fancy sounding names for using software to optimize advertising campaigns) but whoever invested in them during the Covid crisis will have made out very well.

Air Canada / Air Transat / Westjet

A tale of market timing…

Air Canada (TSX: AC) was going to buy out Air Transat (TSX: TRZ) for $18/share, but of course COVID-19 hit. They will instead do so for $5/share, and also with shares instead of cash (the details of this were not clear from the press release, but a typical provision is for people to elect to take cash up to a certain aggregate amount and after they will receive cash). The shares option has Air Canada equity valued at a level that is higher than Friday’s closing trading price.

Financially, Transat is not in terrible condition, with a whole bunch of cash and equivalents that are paid in the form of customer deposits (good luck getting those ticket refunds, customers!). They are still bleeding cash by virtue of their revenues going down to nearly nothing, but Air Canada is striking while the iron is hot (or rather, while the Covid craze is hot) and removing a future source of competition. The implied value in international ticket pricing they will gain will probably be a lot higher than the immediate costs of the costs they are paying.

We contrast this with Onex’s acquisition of Westjet, which closed in December 2019 for $31/share in cash (or $5 billion, debt included). Air Canada’s equity took a 3/4 haircut after Covid, and there wouldn’t be much reason to believe that Westjet would have fared any better had they still been public. Onex is a huge entity so their financial solvency is nowhere threatened, but still, they probably took an implied $3 billion haircut if they were to float Westjet to the public again.

This, and also an examination of Cineplex’s proposed takeover (at CAD$34/share), goes to show you that timing is everything.

I don’t buy airlines, nor do I particularly care for the sector as a whole. Almost everything associated with the retail side of commercial aviation is miserable. Other components of the industry have somewhat more promise.

Yellow Pages – Float shrinks even further

Today on SEDAR, Empyrean Capital Partners disclosed a purchase of shares in Yellow Pages (TSX: Y) and their holdings are now 5.64 million shares, which is up approximately 677,000 shares from their previous disclosure (which was nearly two years ago).

Combined with the 63,750 shares that Yellow has repurchased in the month of August, this means the public float not held by the 10% owners is approximately 6.39 million shares, or about 23% of the shares outstanding.

The massive short position that was in the company last year has nearly exited the position – short interest is about 18,500 shares. This is unfortunate, as I rather enjoyed receiving an extra 10% yield on my shares as they were periodically being lent out for short sellers.

With the amount of cash flow they are able to generate, they will be paying the entirety of their convertible debentures (TSX: YPG.DB) on May 31, 2021, if the stock price is not above the conversion price ($19.04/share) at that time. After paying off the debt (or having it converted), I would view it more probable than not that the dividend and/or buybacks will increase significantly from the current quarterly 11 cents per share. I’m quite surprised the rest of the float hasn’t been taken private – I’d guess a lowball offer around $15-16 is incoming. When you consider the company has generated more than $4/share in cash in the past four quarters, this actually seems low.

What, markets don’t go up 30% a month forever?

I’m going to use Tesla as the standard, but you can pretty much use whatever high-flying technology sector stock as a substitute (e.g. Zoom):

Some basic math – from August 11 to August 31, Telsa went from $280/share to $500/share.

It is really a shame that Robinhood removed their customer stock holding information since it is very illustrative what the retail momentum crowd is chasing. Just imagine seeing this chart, and on August 26th or 27th you finally capitulate and say I’m going in. You buy shares at $420 level (remember that number? Pre-split!), and on August 28 and after the weekend you are looking like a genius, up about 20% on your investment in a week. Now this is how you become a millionaire!

Fast forward a week in the markets, and suddenly your $420/share purchase is now sitting at a 15% loss from the cost. How much further down does this go before you capitulate, dump your shares, and then swear off gambling on these popular technology stocks?

This sort of thing happened in 1999-2000 all the time.

One of the few differences is that treating the stock market as a casino is even easier than ever. The emotions associated with gains and losses are all the same.

Another difference is that after the Y2K scare passed without any consequences, Alan Greenspan applied the monetary brake pedals (do you remember the days when interest rates were above zero?) and it was one of the contributors to the crash in March of 2000. This crash was preceded by an incredible amount of volatility in February 2000. Right now, gasoline is still being poured onto the fire in the form of fiscal stimulus and interest rate curve control.

I’d be curious what the average retail holding period of Tesla stock was in the past month. I’d guess a week or two at most.

Since there was likely much more broad participation in this upswing since June (the realization that markets are effectively decoupled from the economy), in order to make a check on the upward momentum requires a much more violent downswing. As the chart of Tesla above can attest to, this was a pretty violent downturn, and will shake out people that think the stock market was a one-way street to riches.

In the short term, if a trade feels comfortable to make, it probably is a losing one.

Just Energy – the conclusion to the recapitalization

In regards to Just Energy (TSX: JE), after a suspenseful suspension of the recapitalization proposal meeting, a couple days later an agreement with substantially most of the shareholders and debtholders was struck.

On August 26, there was agreement to amend the following:

* pay accrued and unpaid interest in cash on the Subordinated Convertible Debentures until closing of the Recapitalization,
* issue C$15 million principal amount of new subordinated notes (the “New Subordinated Notes”) to holders of the Subordinated Convertible Debentures, which New Subordinated Notes will have a six-year maturity and will bear an annual interest rate of 7% (which shall only be payable in kind semi-annually),
* pay certain expenses of the ad hoc group of convertible debenture holders, and
* issue approximately C$3.67 million of common shares by way of an additional private placement to the Company’s term loan lenders at the same subscription price available to all securityholders pursuant to the New Equity Subscription Offering, proceeds of which will partially offset the incremental cash costs noted above.

All other terms of the Recapitalization remain unchanged.

The cash interest payment will save the debentureholders about (JE.DB.C) 1% and (JE.DB.D) 3% of par, and the $15 million debt issuance, assuming par, will be another 6 cents on the dollar. Debentures did jump up by a factor of 2 upon the recapitalization, and so did the preferred shares – clearly both classes were anticipating a CCAA proceeding.

The common shares also jumped upon the news, but traded lower from the morning spike throughout the day after approval.

Now, what is odd is that the news of the amended terms of recapitalization, coupled with the voting support agreements came by way of press release on August 26, at 8:27am, eastern time. The actual approval came on August 27, 5:32pm (after market close). On the morning of August 28, trading spiked up. There was a full two trading days where if one was alert, you could have sucked up a few bits of liquidity on the common shares and debentures:

Volume, August 26:
JE: 505,700 shares, VWAP 0.4315
JE.PR.U: 41,000 shares, VWAP 0.9997 (note: par value $25)
JE.DB.C: 113,000 par, VWAP 16.687
JE.DB.D: 139,000 par, VWAP 16.22

Volume, August 27:
JE: 349,850 shares, VWAP 0.4023
JE.PR.U: 100 shares @ 1.16
JE.DB.C: 93,000 par, VWAP 17.442
JE.DB.D: 18,000 par, VWAP 16.914

Dollar-wise, while we’re not talking about gigantic amounts of money, but for the small guppies out there, you could have made quite a few sushi dinners out of the gains from sucking up 5-10% of the average volume. Sadly I was asleep at the switch as well.

No positions, but this was rather fascinating to watch.