Quebec companies trading on the TSX

Following up on my previous post that I predict the Bloc Québécois will be the big winner in the 2019 election, it makes me wonder about Quebec-listed Canadian companies.

It is likely that in a Liberal minority government situation, they will require on the implicit support of the BQ in order to maintain power in government. Hence, there will be subsidies galore, in addition to Quebec-friendly policies.

Attached is a table of the 80 TSX-listed companies with Quebec headquarters. The list is a bit too much to go into any individual detail, but there are a few interesting ones here. For instance, who wants to speculate the SNC-Lavalin’s problems will magically disappear overnight? They solved most of their balance sheet problems with the partial sale of the 407 Freeway. How about Bombardier and their perpetual reliance on government subsidies to function? The list goes on and on! To make this even spicier, my largest undisclosed equity position is in the following list (completely unrelated to the thesis that the winds of the federal government are behind the backs of Québecers, although it’s certainly a bonus!).

Bonne Chance!

TSX Listed Companies from Quebec

August 31, 2019
RankNameTickerMktCap($M)Sector
1Canadian National Railway CompanyCNR88358Industrial Products & Services
2BCE Inc.BCE58993Comm & Media
3Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.ATD47310Consumer Staples
4CGI Inc.GIB25113Technology
5National Bank of CanadaNA22994Financial Services
6Power Financial CorporationPWF21306Financial Services
7Dollarama Inc.DOL16038Consumer Discretionary
8Saputo Inc.SAP15648Consumer Staples
9Metro Inc.MRU14382Consumer Staples
10Power Corporation Of CanadaPOW12914Financial Services
11Air CanadaAC11908Consumer Discretionary
12Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.BEP9964Utilities & Pipelines
13Gildan Activewear Inc.GIL9942Consumer Discretionary
14Bausch Health Companies Inc.BHC9923Life Sciences
15CAE Inc.CAE9278Technology
16Quebecor Inc.QBR7647Comm & Media
17WSP Global Inc.WSP7593Industrial Products & Services
18iA Financial CorporationIAG6292Financial Services
19Bombardier Inc.BBD4502Industrial Products & Services
20Cogeco Communications Inc.CCA3537Comm & Media
21TFI International Inc.TFII3221Industrial Products & Services
22Lightspeed POS Inc.LSPD2920Technology
23SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.SNC2881Industrial Products & Services
24Domtar CorporationUFS2848Forest Products & Paper
25Stella-Jones Inc.SJ2710Forest Products & Paper
26Innergex Renewable Energy Inc.INE2330Utilities & Pipelines
27Cominar Real Estate Investment TrustCUF2277Real Estate
28Laurentian Bank Of CanadaLB2047Financial Services
29Boralex Inc.BLX1999Utilities & Pipelines
30BRP Inc.DOO1873Consumer Discretionary
31MTY Food Group Inc.MTY1588Consumer Discretionary
32Richelieu Hardware Ltd.RCH1458Industrial Products & Services
33HEXO Corp.HEXO1375Cannabis
34Cogeco Inc.CGO1345Comm & Media
35Transcontinental Inc.TCL1250Comm & Media
36Valener Inc.VNR1117Utilities & Pipelines
37Intertape Polymer Group Inc.ITP1087Industrial Products & Services
38Cascades Inc.CAS1056Industrial Products & Services
39Knight Therapeutics Inc.GUD1043Life Sciences
40Fiera Capital CorporationFSZ997Financial Services
41Rogers Sugar Inc.RSI723Consumer Staples
42Heroux-Devtek Inc.HRX636Industrial Products & Services
43Aimia Inc.AIM576Consumer Discretionary
44Transat A.T. Inc.TRZ574Consumer Discretionary
45Lassonde Industries Inc.LAS559Consumer Staples
46Savaria CorporationSIS552Industrial Products & Services
47Resolute Forest Products Inc.RFP516Forest Products & Paper
48New Look Vision Group Inc.BCI504Consumer Discretionary
49Neptune Wellness Solutions Inc.NEPT497Cannabis
50Logistec CorporationLGT483Industrial Products & Services
51Uni-Select Inc.UNS457Consumer Discretionary
52Stingray Group Inc.RAY440Comm & Media
53Senvest Capital Inc.SEC436Financial Services
54Theratechnologies Inc.TH435Life Sciences
55BELLUS Health Inc.BLU413Life Sciences
56GDI Integrated Facility Services Inc.GDI372Industrial Products & Services
57BMTC Group Inc.GBT358Consumer Discretionary
58BTB Real Estate Investment TrustBTB342Real Estate
59Dorel Industries Inc.DII299Consumer Discretionary
60ProMetic Life Sciences Inc.PLI270Life Sciences
61PRO Real Estate Investment TrustPRV261Real Estate
62Yellow Pages LimitedY233Comm & Media
635N Plus Inc.VNP195Industrial Products & Services
64Alithya Group Inc.ALYA179IT Consulting & Services
65TECSYS Inc.TCS175Technology
66Goodfood Market Corp.FOOD156Consumer Staples
67Colabor Group Inc.GCL128Consumer Staples
68EXFO Inc.EXF115Communication Technology
69Yellow Pages Digital & Media Solutions LimitedYPG111Comm & Media
70Mediagrif Interactive Technologies Inc.MDF78Internet Software & Services
71Opsens Inc.OPS75Hardware & Equipment
72Supremex Inc.SXP74Forest Products & Paper
73TVA Group Inc.TVA73Comm & Media
74AEterna Zentaris Inc.AEZS50Life Sciences
75Velan Inc.VLN42Industrial Products & Services
76TSO3 Inc.TOS40Life Sciences
77Goodfellow Inc.GDL38Forest Products & Paper
78Orbit Garant Drilling Inc.OGD37Mining Services
79D-Box Technologies Inc.DBO24Hardware & Equipment
80ADF Group Inc.DRX21Industrial Products & Services

Gran Colombia Gold spinning off Marmato

Ladies and Gentlemen, hold onto your wallets!

TORONTO, Oct. 07, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Gran Colombia Gold Corp. (TSX: GCM, OTCQX: TPRFF) (the “Company” or “Gran Colombia”) announced today, further to the press release of the Company dated September 16, 2019, that it has entered into a letter of intent (the “LOI”) on October 4, 2019 with Bluenose Gold Corp. (TSX-V: BN.H) (“Bluenose”) in respect of the proposed acquisition by Bluenose of certain mining assets (the “Mining Assets”) at the Company’s Marmato Project located in the Department of Caldas, Colombia (the “Transaction”).

Gran Colombia has two operating mines. One is Segovia, which produces the substantial majority (89%) of its gold. The other is Marmato. They have three other potential avenues, all of which are not operating. There is Zancudo, which they optioned off to IAMGOLD for exploration and potential development. There is their Venezuelan properties, which is a “good luck if they democratically elect a new government before the country is completely destroyed” situation, and finally the Chicharron project which is being reflected in GCM’s equity investments in Sandspring (TSX: SSP).

The press release above is an attempt to spin off their Marmato operation in another publicly listed entity.

Marmato is currently undergoing exploration and finalization of another development project that will expand the mining capacity well beyond the 25,000 ounces/year it currently is producing. The initial plan was an open pit mine, but now that is revised in a tunneled project. Needless to say, this will consume gigantic amounts of capital.

The finance deal is very questionable for GCM shareholders.

Bluenose will be the recipient of a reverse takeover. After accounting for a 1:10 reverse split, Bluenose has 10.6 million shares outstanding. The current corporation is a shell (a few bucks on the balance sheet, no debt). GCM will be throwing in its Marmato asset for 28.75 million shares, notionally valued at $2/share.

Is an existing mining operation producing 25,000 ounces of gold a year (US$37.5 million top-line) worth a capitalization of US$43.1 million?

GCM will also be throwing in another $5 million for 2.5 million shares and warrants to purchase at $3. Bluenose will also sell to the public 5-7.5 million shares at the same terms.

It’s going to take a lot more money than this to get the mine up and operating.

There is also an insider relationship involved. On November 2, 2018, the following was announced by Bluenose:

The Company has been advised that Frank Giustra and his related entities will acquire an aggregate of 11,700,000 post-consolidated common shares of the Company representing 11.14% of the issued and outstanding post-consolidated common shares of the Company pursuant to a private transaction. Radcliffe Corporation, Fiore Financial Corp. and Fiore Farms Inc. (companies indirectly owned by Mr. Giustra) will acquire an aggregate of 4,000,000 post-consolidated common shares, representing 3.81% of the issued and outstanding common shares of the Company. Canada Life Ltd. through an investment account controlled and directed by Mr. Giustra) and The Giustra Foundation (a charitable organization controlled by Mr. Giustra) will acquire 7,700,000 post-consolidated common shares of the Company representing in aggregate 7.64% of the issued and outstanding shares of the Company. Following these transactions, Mr. Giustra will have indirect ownership and/or control, over an aggregate of 11,700,000 post-consolidated common shares of the Company representing 11.14% and would have indirect ownership and/or control over an aggregate of 12,050,000 post-consolidated common shares representing 11.43% on a partially diluted basis, assuming the exercise of 350,000 incentive stock options granted to the Giustra Foundation.

This was probably the connection that lead GCM to choose Bluenose as the reverse merger candidate.

Finally, what is most interesting is the following:

The closing of the Transaction will also be subject to the following conditions, amongst others:

all liens and encumbrances in respect of Marmato Panama, Marmato Colombia and the Mining Assets granted in favour of the holders of the 8.25% senior secured notes due in 2024 shall have been released and discharged, on terms and conditions satisfactory to Bluenose, acting reasonably;

This remains to be seen how this will be resolved. Noteholders are not simply going to give up security to the Maramato asset. It will cost GCM something to get the noteholders to agree to it. Will noteholders receive shares/warrants in Bluenose, will they receive cash, or will they receive a boost in their coupon to compensate for the loss in collateral? (Disclosure: I own a not insubstantial amount of GCM notes.)

Either way, I view this as a negative for GCM shareholders.

TSX Exchange-traded debt review

I have made some corrections to my initial TSX Exchange-traded debt spreadsheet. So far, this is turning out to be a great replacement for the old one that used to be at the old Financial Post website before it got taken down.

In terms of valuations, none of them appear to be errantly priced where I am tempted to dive in. The ones trading well under par are either visibly insolvent or marijuana companies. In either instance, purchasers of the debentures are likely to lose capital. The best of the worst of them appear to be DHX Media (TSX: DHX.DB) and Just Energy (TSX: JE.DB.C/D) but both of these businesses have issues which make the double-digit YTM warranted.

If your goal with these instruments is to make a relatively easy 5%, however, there are plenty of quality selections to be made, although I’d make the argument that for a non-tax sheltered account you would be much better off with preferred shares.

Mid-tier Canadian oil on the ropes

A couple pieces of evidence to indicate the malaise in the Canadian oil sector.

First one was Pengrowth (TSX: PGF), who announced:

The Company’s $330 million Credit Facility (all amounts in Canadian dollars) is provided by a broad syndicate of domestic and international banks and had a scheduled maturity of September 30, 2019. The lenders have agreed to provide the Company with a 31 day extension of the maturity date under the Credit Facility to October 31, 2019 with a maximum facility draw of $180 million under the Credit Facility and a $5 million Excess Cash provision.

Holders of the Secured Notes have agreed to the extension of the Credit Facility and to a 31 day extension of the maturity date under the October Notes to November 18, 2019.

The Company will continue to operate its free cash flow positive business as usual. This short-term extension will allow the Company to continue to advance discussions with its lenders and noteholders with the objective of completing a long-term extension transaction. The mutual goal of Pengrowth and its senior debtholders is to negotiate a three year extension that allows the Company the flexibility to reduce its outstanding debt with the benefit of additional time and improved market conditions.

The Company believes it has made significant progress with its lenders and noteholders on a number of key areas in respect of the potential extension transaction, but there remain ongoing detailed discussions which require additional time. A transaction may result in dilution of the outstanding common shares of the Company (with an associated impact on the value of such shares) as part of any consideration provided to affected lenders and noteholders. There can be no assurance or guarantee that a long-term extension transaction will be agreed to or on what terms.

Pengrowth has CAD$57 million (denominated in foreign currency) in secured debt that is due on October 18, 2019 which has been extended a month as a result of the above release. They also have significant debt in 2020 and 2022, and also a line of credit which was set to expire on September 30, 2019. Current debt outstanding is $362 million, and non-current portion is $340 million.

The only way the company could pay the upcoming bond maturity is by the extension of its term facility, which of course the banks are unlikely to give without security, but the security has already been pledged to the noteholders. So this is a very sticky situation where both secured entities (noteholders and credit facility) have an incentive to pulling the pin to getting instant payment. Pengrowth also has covenants relating to the secured notes that they are likely to break imminently (even though they were relaxed in the past).

This is not likely to end very well for Pengrowth shareholders. The only wild card here is whether Seymour Schulich (who owns 159,400,000 shares of PGF or about 28.5% of the company) will be asked to put up a bunch more money to salvage his investment, which, needless to say, is seriously under water at the moment.

Second item: Bellatrix Exploration (TSX: BXE) went into CCAA today. Shareholders will probably get little out of it. While an energy company going into CCAA may not necessarily be unexpected news, the surprise here was that it took place after a recent capitalization (June 4, 2019). However, it is pretty clear in retrospect that the replacement of 4 of the 7 directors resulted in them changing gears and instead are representing the debtholders with this action.