Birchcliff Energy – hiding in plain sight

Sometimes an investment stares at you in the face and it is so obvious that it makes you wonder why others do not see it this way.

This is the case with Birchcliff Energy (TSX: BIR). Now that it has appreciated well beyond its Covid lows, I’ll write a little more about it in detail. I’ve been long shares of this (both common and preferred) for quite some time.

In 2022 it will produce about 79,000 boe/d equivalent (exit 2022 at approx. 82,000 boe/d), of which 80% of it is in the form of natural gas. All of this production is in the northwestern Alberta area, right up to the BC border.

Thus, the primary driver for this company is the state of the natural gas market. It has exposure to Dawn, Henry Hub and AECO.

Birchcliff is an unusual company in that they do not host quarterly conference calls. Instead, they issue information through large press releases and make it very easy to look at the assumptions. Although I have no problem sharpening my pencil and doing the leg works to do a proper pro-forma projection given various commodity price environments, Birchcliff expedites this process considerably.

There is some fine print to wade through, but the point is that BIR will generate $910 million in “excess free funds flow” (effectively cash flows after capex and projected dividend payments) with the average commodity prices as displayed in the release.

Notably, spot WTI and the spot Henry Hub price is well above their assumptions (US$114 and US$9.2 as I write this). Dawn typically tracks Henry Hub. Let’s ignore that spot is higher than modeled rates in the press release.

$910M of “excessive free funds” translates into $3.43/share.

At Wednesday’s closing price of $11.56, that is 3.4x or a yield of about 30%.

Normally companies are constrained with leverage and debt servicing. At the end of 2021, Birchcliff had $539 million in net debt (which includes BIR.PR.C) and another $50 million for the redemption of BIR.PR.A. The redemption of the preferred shares will result in a $6.8 million annualized savings on dividends (3 pennies a share, every bit counts!).

This will leave the company with a positive net cash amount of $270 million at the end of the year (the “Surplus”), unless they decide to blow some money on acquisitions and the like. Importantly, the math does not have to be adjusted for a leveraged return (indeed, it has to be corrected in the opposite direction).

The company will also be making enough money to eat through most of its tax shield ($1.9 billion at the end of 2021) and start paying income taxes in 2023, if the current price environment continues. Still, at US$88 oil, and US$5.50 Henry Hub for 2023 assumptions, the projection is for $535 million or about $2/share in free cash flow.

The stated policy on what to do with the cash surplus is to dividend it out beyond that which is to be used for strategic purposes. Management does not appear to be big on share repurchases other than to offset dilution that which has been issued from option plans (which is a real cash cost and will drag cash flows accordingly).

They will increase the dividend to $0.80/year in 2023, which is a $212 million outflow. This dividend can be maintained at price levels that are unlikely to be seen barring a great depression.

If they dividend the rest of their cash flows, when plugging in current commodity prices, they can give out far more than $0.80/year in dividends. It would be closer to around $2.80, or about $0.70 per quarter. Needless to say, if this is what they did, the market would find the yield (24%) tough to resist.

This is a very similar situation to Arch Resources (NYSE: ARCH), where the company will be giving out half of its free cash flow as a dividend and the other half to buy back shares. Considering its Q2 dividend will likely be around US$11/share, the obvious value of a share buyback is apparent. I wish Birchcliff would more actively consider it, at some cut-off threshold. For example, they can buy back shares until the price gets to a point where it is at 15% projected long-term free cash flows, a very conservative metric for a beneficial buyback. Right now that would imply that buying back below $15/share will clear that hurdle. At 12%, that number is about $19/share. There’s quite a way to go from current market prices.

None of this is a huge secret. It’s all in plain sight. It all relies on elevated commodity prices.

Miscellaneous economic musings

I look at the carnage going over in technology (today’s slaughterhouse featured SNAP, down 43% on an earnings report I never bothered to read) and ask myself if I am vulnerable to any of this.

I am guessing all of the tech-driven spending, including advertising, is just falling off the proverbial cliff. Everybody’s starting to tighten.

Economically, experiential spending will dominate 2022 (hospitality/entertainment) entirely due to Covid, the deferment of this type of stuff for the past two years is causing this year’s demand.

Just get on Expedia and look up prices of car rentals and hotels, they are higher now than I have ever remembered them. Just as an example, looking here in the Vancouver area, your average 2.5 star hotel is going for roughly C$250/night plus taxes (domestically), and it isn’t even peak summer season yet. Car rentals are $100 a day, even for a compact vehicle.

The demand/supply dynamic is causing these huge price spikes. People have money to throw at ‘experiences’, while providers are short-staffed and facing the same increased costs for labour, supplies, food, etc., hence everything is going to be at a premium.

This goes on until people’s money runs out.

2023 will probably be a better time to take a vacation. After all these tourist agencies increase capacity they will discover that nobody’s coming next year.

The flip side is that discretionary goods in the second half of this year will go on a huge sale. Home renovation season this summer will be totally dead.

Portfolio-wise, the best thing for me to do at the moment is to just sit on my rear end and take no action. It helps when I do not own anything like SNAP, although I do note the closest thing I have to a technology holding is down about 30% peak to trough. I am not particularly concerned for this holding, which used to be my largest last year. What happened instead, however, is that fossil fuels started to take over the portfolio through appreciation.

I see people switch from large cap to small cap energy names, but I am quite happy with the mish-mash that I’ve selected from my DCOGI index. I have no desire to deal with the sub-50k boe/d sector.

As long as the commodity price environment continues, these companies will continue to make a fortune. It will get to the point where governments will try to steal more shareholder profits and when they start to make their cash grabs, it probably will signal a time to lighten.

In the meantime, I think the fundamental argument for oil and gas continues to be very good. Chronic under-investment since the 2014 boom for various reasons (economics, ESG, Covid) has significantly changed the demand/supply dynamics in a manner that will take years to rectify itself. Only now some people are dimly waking up to the possibility that “renewable energy” is not going to be replacing fossil fuels in any substantive amounts and that there is an insatiable and growing demand for energy. This energy is functionally a first claim on any input in society – even before the taxman, which is saying a lot. You only generate taxes through income or consumption and you don’t get either without energy!

The financial world vs. the physical world

The Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada’s desired effect right now is to deflate the asset markets, creating a ‘reverse wealth effect’ which will hopefully stamp out some amount of inflation.

We are already seeing this rush for liquidity. It’s been going on for months now, but it’s getting to the threshold where it is actually being noticed by most people as they check their brokerage account balances.

As funds start to face redemption orders as people continue to want liquidity and demand US dollars to pay off their debts, we see asset prices drop as a result, across the spectrum (especially “stablecoin” Luna holders!). Very little gets spared in these market situations.

Companies that have long track records of producing cash are taken from a higher multiple to a lower multiple. A company that was previously trading at a (truly!) stable 15 times earnings will be re-valued at 12 times – that’s a 20% haircut in price. You haven’t lost value in the company – it will still continue earning the amount of cash it has been earning, but instead your capitalized value of it has been re-rated so if you want the entire sum of those cash flows today you will be receiving less money.

Lower prices bring higher returns for reinvestment. That company previously trading at 15 times would give you a 6.67% return – today those same dollars would give you 8.33%. The company can then look at its ledger for reinvestment opportunities. In a perfect world, it will invest capital externally in those projects that can earn better than 8.33%, and if it can’t, it will buy back shares (or give it to shareholders as a dividend). Real world conditions are never as black and white or clean, and hence a market exists.

We look at another real-world situation where a company like (TSX: CNQ), at US$107/barrel oil, trades at 4.7 times free cash flow (21%). The opportunity for them is obvious – buy back their own shares – and in a day like today, they will easily be able to post a bunch of bids and get hit as their stock is down 3%. Will the market take them down 20% to 3.8x (27%)? If so, it will make their buyback program that much more accretive – if you take the assumption that this commodity price environment will continue.

This price environment cannot be and is not assumed to last by many, hence the very low price to cash flow multiple given to these companies. Indeed, a big destruction of demand would cause commodity prices to tumble and will correspondingly take down equities with it.

There is also a propensity by many to take gains on stocks trading at 52-week highs – either to cut down your percentage allocation (anybody with fossil fuels in their portfolio have most certainly seen them bloat to high percentages) or as a manner to ‘take chips off the table’, perhaps to invest in beaten-down technology companies.

These are financial considerations. You can make these transactions by clicking buttons in front of a computer. The real-world physical market is a different story.

With the physical commodity environment showing few signs of retreat (Russia’s oil and gas exports will surely drop in the upcoming months, and US strategic petroleum reserve releases do not appear to be making any dents on US crude inventory levels), for now, it appears that the physical environment is favourable for continued high prices. Coupled with massive amounts of cash flows being poured into share buybacks, should put a limit to the downside of the fossil fuel complex. Indeed, investors should be cheering on price drops as moments where more shares can be taken off the open market when the physical market is still showing great demand in relation to supply.

The physical environment of a relatively inelastic commodity is very telling. It is best illustrated with an analogy.

Let’s pretend that we have an island of 100 people, a food factory, and cash. Initially this island produces 110 meals per day of food, and this food is of the non-perishable variety, so you can store it somewhere for rainy days. Everybody is happy, the price of food is low, and everybody can go and watch Netflix since there is nothing else to spend your capital on in the island other than buying food and maintaining the food factory. Netflix makes a fortune since they can raise their prices continually, although there is a fraction of people that prefer to just watch the waves crash against the beach. However, over time, there is a belief out there that the food factory causes a slowdown of video streaming resolution, so many of the island residents manage to pass a policy framework that chokes maintenance investment in the food factory. Initially this doesn’t have much of an impact as food production went to 105 meals a day, but over the past few years, it has slipped below 90 meals, but there was a sufficient surplus to keep people fed.

Indeed, there was a disease that struck the island that caused residents to eat half as much as normal for many months, but they slowly managed to recover from this disease, and now are back to normal eating levels. The surplus of meals that was built up by the food factory that is now producing 80 meals a day was immense, but that surplus is now running low, and residents are starting to get fearful that they will not be able to purchase food much longer. The price of the meals slowly starts to climb as this awareness creeps in, and now that this surplus is approaching critical levels, prices on this inelastic good is very, very high and everybody on the island is now noticing the price of food, and talking about how we need to subsidize people to purchase food. There are also talks about how the food factory is unfairly engaging in price gouging, and how the factory should be “islandized” to ensure a fairer equitable distribution of food. Nowhere is it mentioned that capital should be invested into the food factory to increase its output – as this would slow down people’s video streaming resolution (no way you can watch those videos at 1080p when you’ve been watching it at 4K all your life!).

Hence the situation we are in today. It doesn’t end very well.

The Crypto crash – Luna!

(Update, May 14, 2022: Lots of educational comments given to this article – much thanks everybody)

Long-time readers of this site know I have not been a fan of cryptocurrency.

This might be a bit of sour grapes on my part since I’ve been writing about Bitcoin since 2011 (yes, when it was still US$10/coin) and wasn’t a fan back then, and still am not today other than strictly the amusement factor of seeing people attempt to trade it.

Back in 2011 when Bitcoin was the only game in town, I wrote the following:

There is also the issue of “counterfeiting”, even if the bitcoin system is technically secure. One problem is that you can create an identical digital currency and call it something different. So in this essence, counterfeiting is a very relevant concern – not direct counterfeiting, but copy-catting. Bitcoin does have a “first mover advantage” which may mitigate against this.

I try not to pay much attention to the sector, but I have been amused to know that many asset managers out there consider cryptocurrency to actually be an asset class that one should keep in their portfolio at some low fraction of assets, like the arguments one would make for holding precious metals. There have also been other developments such as the concept of “stablecoins”, and crypto algorithms that apparently guarantee payouts, etc. I have not kept up to speed on the specifics of the developments and have generally tried to quarantine my brain from it, similar to how I would regarding the trading of Gamestop equity.

But this one really caught my attention – the demise of this cryptocurrency called Luna.

It is my understanding that Luna was tied to another cryptocurrency called Tether (May 14, 2022 edit: Terra), which itself is apparently backed by actual US Dollars in some bank somewhere (audit confirmation pending!). The difference is that Luna apparently pledged that you can get a 20% return by investing it in. Please be warned I could have gotten this completely incorrect, but if it is the case, wow.

So I dredged up a chart of Luna and saw the following:

At one point in the history of Luna, they had a market capitalization of US$775 trillion. Wow. Just wow! Am I reading this correctly? Somebody please educate me in the comments! (May 14, 2022: It wasn’t in the trillions, but in the few tens of billions. Apparently the high number of coins outstanding were automatically created by its algorithmic link to Terra)

What the heck am I doing investing in stocks? Time to go fully into crypto for the next Luna – whether this will be long or short, who knows!

Bank of Canada speech – headline vs. reality

Globe and Mail: Interest rate trajectory will depend heavily on housing market, Bank of Canada deputy governor says

Bank of Canada: The perfect storm

Quite the difference!

Read the speech itself, and THEN the Globe and Mail article – by reading the news article first, you expose your brain to potentially getting swept away into some narrative which may or may not be a reflection of the intended communication.

Going to the speech:

As a result, we expect the recent increase in commodity prices to boost the level of business investment in Canada by less than half of what our models generally predict based on historical relationships.

All in all, the commodity price shock is expected to generate a modest positive impact on the growth outlook for Canada—smaller than we have seen in the past.

The Bank of Canada is surprised that commodity companies are contributing less in capital investment despite the price environment. I wonder why!

More importantly, a slowdown in growth does not have to mean high unemployment, which was the hallmark of the stagflation period of the 1970s. Right now, job vacancies are very high, which means employers are trying to hire still more workers from a declining pool of labour. By cooling overall demand, we can reduce the demand for labour and the degree of labour shortages in the economy. Employers could stop looking for new workers but keep the ones they have—with little impact on the unemployment rate. That is a scenario that delivers a soft landing.

Good luck! This is like the macroeconomic equivalent of trying to thread a needle while wearing heavy-duty construction gloves.

First, what might lead us to pause our policy rate increases as the rate enters our estimated range for neutral of 2% to 3%?

Now we will get to what caused the Globe and Mail headline to print:

Another factor that might lead us to pause is that many households have taken on more debt to get into the housing market. At the end of 2021, the household debt-to-income ratio was 186%, above the pre-pandemic level of 181%. And rising interest rates are designed to slow the economy by making borrowing more expensive. That tends to slow sectors like housing. But this slowing might be amplified this time around because highly indebted households will face high debt-servicing costs and will likely reduce household spending more than they would have otherwise. Our base-case scenario includes a slowdown in housing activity. But we could see a larger-than-expected slowdown due to higher indebtedness and unsustainably high housing prices.

There were a whole bunch of reasons rates will level off at the “neutral rate”, and reasons why rates would continue to rise, but the Globe and Mail cherry-picked this paragraph for their desired headline.

I’ll leave it up to you to digest the rest of it. The important signal of this speech is that we will see central banks give out this “Well, there is going to be a limit to rate hikes” mantra which will attempt to stop what has been a slow motion stock market crash in recent months. The Federal Reserve is likely to follow suit with their forward guidance (‘speeches’).