TFII – Divestor

Transforce is run by a genius

Alain Bédard is very good in capital allocation. TFI International (TSX: TFII) announced they are going to sell 4 million shares to the market.

Their stock chart looks like this:

When you have a stock chart like this, what do you do? Raise equity capital while the going is good. Especially after you’ve exercised and dumped a bunch of stock options (he still owns about 4.1 million shares at present, so still plenty of skin in the game).

I took a small shot at them last February for selling equity after buying back shares, but this move I think is admirable – will also get their debt down to something a little more comfortable. They’ve acquired a couple companies since the Covid-19 debacle began.

Confusing Capital Allocation – Transforce

Transforce (TSX: TFII), now known as TFI International, announced their year-end earnings today.

This post is less concerned about the results (they did a good job generating plenty of cash and reporting a year-end net income of about $4/share), but the following paragraph:

CASH FLOW
Net cash from continuing operating activities was $665.3 million during 2019 versus $543.5 million the prior year. The 22% increase was due to stronger operating performance and the impact of the adoption of IFRS 16. The Company returned $336.4 million to shareholders during the year, of which $80.7 million was through dividends and $255.7 million was through share repurchases.

$255.7 million returned from share buybacks (and mostly purchased at a cost lower than the current stock price which is about $44/share).

However, the next press release is for a 6 million share public offering to list on the NYSE.

There’s two issues here.

One is that a 6 million share offering will raise about CAD$264 million gross, or roughly CAD$250 net after offering expenses, assuming the stock doesn’t tank tomorrow. This is approximately the amount the company bought back in shares in 2019.

The other is that (just like Target), the logistics of Canadian companies operating in the USA is fraught with new risks and dangers. TFII already operates across North America, so it is not like they will be new at it, but the observation is they are trying to move their “centre” south. It’s probably more of an indictment on what management thinks of the current economic climate in Canada.

Management does have a relatively good track record on capital allocation, but the buyback “and let’s do an IPO!” is confusing.

However, in fairness to management, their balance sheet is looking a little debt-heavy and de-leveraging might not be a bad decision in case if this future recession (which is almost cemented into mythology) occurs.

Book Review: The Outsiders – and outsized returns

The Outsiders: Eight unconventional CEOs and their radically rational blueprint for success – by William Thorndike.

I’ll recommend this book. Although it is becoming somewhat dated (copyright date was 2012), it gives the reader a 50,000 foot above the skies satellite view of some hand-picked CEOs that were able to strongly defeat the GE Jack Welch / S&P 500 record during multi-decade periods. They shared a single characteristic – they were able to allocate capital with discipline and ruthless efficiency. Operationally they were able to delegate to competent individuals and decentralization to the point of abdication was another theme.

If this book was written today and for Canadian CEOs, I would think Mark Leonard of Constellation Software (TSX: CSU) is an obvious candidate. He has delivered 42% compounded annual returns over the past decade, and 38% since going public in May of 2006 – notably still earning this return through the 2008-2009 economic crisis.

Reading (mostly written by) Mark Leonard’s Shareholder Q&A letters is fascinating insight on the company and how management thinks. It is indeed a shame that I never heard of this company until it was far, far too late. Sadly they are looking at future returns in the upper teens from their current size.

I have also taken great pleasure of reading Tyler’s compilation of quotations by TransForce’s (TSX: TFII) CEO Alain Bedard, which is a trucking and logistics company. TFII has performed at 22% compounded annually over the past decade, and about 13% since going public in October 2002 (in both cases dividend-adjusted). For a low margin business such as trucking, this is needless to say impressive.

There is a bit of retrospective bias in this book, however. Most individuals would probably regard Prem Watsa of Fairfax (TSX: FFH) as being a very good CEO, but his dividend-adjusted CAGR over the past decade has been 9%, and over the past 20 years has been 6%. Compare this with CEO Duncan Jackman of E-L Financial (TSX: ELF), which has been approx. 9% over both the past 10 and 20 year period. E-L Financial, in my opinion, is the least attention-seeking publicly traded corporation with a market cap of over a billion dollars.

For the sake of comparison, the TSX’s performance (dividends reinvested) over the past 10 years has been 6.6%. The main index (dividends not reinvested) over the past 17.7 years (which is how far the data goes back when they did a major change to the index) is 4.5% – adding in dividends would be another 3% or so. So a 9% CAGR performance is a slightly overperformance over the TSX, but posting returns into the teens and better is clear outperformance.