I might be too old to be investing anymore – Mogo Finance

Look what popped up on my radar today – Mogo Finance (TSX: MOGO), primarily due to its massive price increase.

I’ve been looking at them on and off since they merged with Difference Capital a couple years back (this was to save MOGO as an entity since they were heavily indebted and no proper refinancing routes with their ultra-expensive line of credit). I had a prior investment in the debentures of Difference Capital, and hence the interest (they had an equity interest in MOGO).

Mogo also had a matter with their convertible debentures, which were extended, this was back in April of last year.

My very quick take of Mogo at the time was that they were not making money, and they were quite unlikely to make money given that their credit facility was priced at 12.5% plus LIBOR, although this was re-priced to 9% plus LIBOR (effectively 10.5%). They also had a non-publicly traded debenture that was also expensive (note 10 in their Q3-2020 financial statement if you care to look).

So when you look at the stock chart above, instantly, you realize that the business is now going to get an extension on its life because they will be able to raise equity financing.

Why did they get such a bounce?

Just take a look at their website. They are trying to be like a Canadian version of Robinhood, mixed in with some consumer finance.

And now, of course, they are getting into Bitcoin.

I can see why the market is ramming up the stock of this company, which did $2.3 million in operating income for the first nine months in 2020. A market cap of CAD$500 million is cheap in comparison to what Robinhood’s last secondary offering was reported to do (apparently during the Gamestop fiasco their revised valuation was at US$30 billion).

I am somewhat mystified and frustrated at my lack of imagination to correlate the two together. Was this thing worth a stab at a valuation of CAD$50 million (plus debt?). The convertible debentures would have been a relatively cheap entry point, with some seniority over the common.

When I look at my portfolio at present, it is most definitely an “old man’s” portfolio of very real-economy type stocks. The most technological of them is Corvel (Nasdaq: CRVL) which produces software that is in a dominant niche (my one and only post on it is here), but this is hardly a millennial starling! I can’t be the only investor out there that is getting this type of feeling that I am getting too old for the markets.

Mogo Inc. Debentures Extension Proposal

(Hat tip to a comment that Will wrote)

It is really rare when I see a debt extension proposal that is so one-sided that it makes me speculate about the ulterior motives.

You can at least excuse entities like Lanesborough REIT (TSXV: LRT.UN) which was all but insolvent when they asked their debentureholders to take a haircut – it was a case of “if you don’t, we’re going to pull the plug and leave you with nothing”. At least the company had a hammer to pound on the hands of the creditors.

The proposal to extend the unsecured convertible debentures of Mogo (TSX: MOGO.DB) is even more absurd. Management Information Circular here.

Mogo is one of those millennial fintech-type companies that offers a mish-mash of financial products (credit card, mortgage, small loan, crypto, etc.). The loan portfolio is extremely risky, as judged by their charge-off rate in 2019 – 17%, which puts them at payday loan levels. The entire operation is still losing money, but this is accelerated by a considerable cost of capital – they are paying double-digit rates of interest on their credit facility.

They merged with Difference Capital (formerly TSX: DCF) which enabled them to raise enough cash to survive another year or so. But they’re still running out of cash – down to about $10 million at the end of 2019. They inherited a (less than liquid) private equity portfolio from Difference Capital worth $20.8 million on the books, but who knows how much it is actually worth (given COVID-19, I’d wager it would be worth less than the stated book value).

One headache to MOGO is their convertible debentures. There is $12.7 million outstanding and it is due to mature on June 6, 2020. As MOGO clearly doesn’t want to pay for it with cash, they can convert it into shares of MOGO at the 20-day VWAP ended May 26, 2020. MOGO currently has a market cap of $34.5 million, and triggering this option would likely cause the market capitalization to drop further and heavily dilute existing equity holders. While it is difficult to predict the magnitude (this depends on how heavily the convertible debenture holders can short sell MOGO stock to drive the price down to receive more shares upon conversion), I would guess there would be at least 50% dilution.

So to preemptively arrest the short-sellers, they float a proposal to extend the debentures on a vote to be held on May 22, 2020. I believe this is the ultimate motive of management’s proposal.

The terms and conditions is that if 2/3rds agree, the major changes are that MOGO debentures will be extended 2 years, the conversion (at the demand of the holder) will lower from $5 to $3.50, the floor conversion price on maturity (on the option of the company) will be at $1.50/share, altering the change of control provisions, in exchange for a 1% consent fee for those that vote in favour. In particular, the $1.50/share floor conversion price is highly unfavourable to existing debentureholders.

If the vote fails, MOGO.DB holders will be converted into a lot of MOGO shares. By having this vote, management is hoping that the VWAP for conversion will be higher than what it would be if they didn’t float this proposal – and if MOGO.DB holders actually agree to this, it would be a huge coup for them since the debentures are most likely to be converted into stock at $1.50/share in a couple years – representing much less dilution than in the current scenario.

I do not have any position in any of this, I do not intend to take a position. I am curious, however, to see how it will turn out.

Mogo Debentures – observations

Scanning the TSX fixed-income trading list, one name stuck out at me: MOGO. They amalgamated with Difference Capital to shore up their balance sheet.

They have $12.7 million in debentures outstanding (TSX: MOGO.DB) which are trading at 93 cents on the dollar. Considering the short term maturity date (June 6, 2020) it makes for an effective 26% yield to maturity when adding on the 10% coupon they give out. What gives?

Mogo’s balance sheet has a lot of high-interest debt (especially in relation to its cash-negative operations), but they are slightly further back in maturity dates than the debenture’s June 6, 2020 maturity. In particular, they have (secured debt) $46.6 million outstanding due July 2, 2020 (with an interest rate of LIBOR+12.5%!) and $31.9 million due August 31, 2020 (LIBOR+8.00%).

These ridiculously high premiums over LIBOR should give an investor an idea as to what risk the banks are (thinking they are) taking in this firm, so at the very minimum, an investor should demand a higher rate of return on unsecured debt.

My guess is that management will be in a position to extend these credit facilities (barely), but one condition (among many) will be that the debentures are converted into equity.

Many convertible debentures have a clause that allows a company to convert them into equity based off of 95% of the volume-weighted average price for the past 20 days of trading on the TSX (usually 30 to 60 days of notice is required, so an investor can have a fairly good grasp as to what the conversion price will be), but I notice that MOGO’s is at the VWAP and not 95% of the VWAP.

It is likely an investor in the convertible debentures is going to receive shares. Today, Mogo’s market cap is 106 million, so a conversion of about 12 million par value is not going to take the stock down too much upon management giving notification of conversion.

Enterprising investors would think about shorting MOGO equity and purchasing the debentures, but sadly the borrow cost of over 20% makes this a prohibitively expensive trade.

I’m not interested in the debentures, but if you’re bullish on Mogo’s equity valuation (I’m not either) it is worth a gander.

Investment companies, agency, and Difference Capital / MOGO Merger

Most corporations that specialize in maintaining equity portfolios typically trade less than their component parts, simply due to the control issue. Shareholders generally have little control or say on when the company can reach their purported net asset values. Management usually has an incentive to not sell off their companies so they can collect salaries and/or benefits and/or power that comes with control.

As a result, it is a very relevant consideration before investing in such vehicles that the incentives of management are in line with your incentives (presumably as a minority shareholder). Some managements do care about their overall shareholder base (Berkshire presently I would judge to be part of this category, although they are much more of an operating company than most think), while most generally regard minority holders as an annoyance to be mitigated. It is rare where minority shareholder groups will organize to a point where a credible proxy fight can be contested, but such contests are expensive and usually the bias is toward incumbent management. A good example of a failed proxy fight was the contest for Aberdeen International (TSX: AAB) in early 2015 (a very brief legal summary is here).

Aberdeen was a notable case where it was trading far below its net asset value and the share structure did not have super-voting shares. The dissident group failed to accumulate enough support and shares to overthrow the board. Aberdeen at that time was trading at 15 cents a share and the book value was roughly 40 cents. Today they are down to a market value of 5 cents per share.

There are plenty of other cases to examine with these types of companies. Dundee Corporation (TSX: DC.A) is a conglomerate with consolidated and non-consolidated investments and has been trading below book value for a considerable period of time. In their last annual report, I highlight the salient page which shows that their operating entities are not doing too well:

Dundee is a dual class structure, with the founding family controlling the entity via super-voting shares. In order to resolve a situation with a redeemable preferred share issuance (which I have written about in the past) they also notably diluted their shareholders – issuing about 42 million shares to go from 61 million to approximately 103 million shares outstanding effectively – at a conversion price of $2/share. After this conversion, the parent company will hold no material debts and management will have a lot more time to be able to figure out how to transform the operating businesses into profitable entities. Presumably until this happens, Dundee will be trading under book value.

The last entity I will point out is Difference Capital (TSX: DCF). They were notable with having “Dragon’s Den” titan Michael Wekerle being their original CEO and lead investor and they invested in a whole smattering of private placements and various business ventures.

This didn’t quite work out for them for the majority of their history. In 2018, they able to focus on monetization of their portfolio in order to mostly pay off a convertible debenture. The remaining part was financed with a 12% secured loan which was partly paid for by insider money. In their year-end of 2018, they held a net asset value of $7.20/share on their financial statements and this was contrasted with a $3 share price (indeed, shortly after the new year, they executed on an asset disposal that spiked their share price up to $4) – hardly a risk for insiders to take when they were first in line on security and taking a nearly guaranteed 12% return – the shareholders are the ones effectively paying for this.

The final monetization of their company was announced on April 15th – however, it was to another company called MOGO Finance Technology (TSX: MOGO) which is chaired by Wekerle and 22.4% of MOGO is already owned by DCF.

DCF is nearly majority controlled by Wekerle (47% via a holding company that he wholly owns). Thus, a DCF shareholder has to ask whether their interests are aligned with his.

The agency issue is whether DCF minority shareholders benefited from the MOGO transaction. The obvious answer, when looking at the financial situation, is no. It reminds me of what Elon Musk did when he merged SolarCity and Telsa together – SolarCity was about to financially fail, but Musk wanted to fold it into Tesla to avoid the negative attention that such a failure would cause, with Telsa shareholders picking up the bill to deal with the entrails of that transaction.

Instead, this transaction was likely to give MOGO some financial breathing space as they were effectively buying the residential value of DCF’s private equity portfolio and more importantly, cash.

MOGO is bleeding significantly serious amounts of money:

The cash shortfall is significant. Operationally, MOGO is not in terrible shape – they reported an operating income loss of $4 million in 2018. The real deficit in MOGO is the cost of their capital. They have $75 million outstanding on a credit facility, $42 million in non-public debentures (ranging from 10% to 18% interest), and $15 million in 10% convertible debentures (TSX: MOGO.DB). When reading the fine print on the credit facility, the following is the key paragraph (note the underlined):

On September 25, 2017, the Company finalized a new senior secured credit facility of up to $40 million (“Credit Facility – Other” and, together with the Credit Facility – Liquid), which was used to repay and replace Mogo’s previous $30 million entered into on February 24, 2014 (“Credit Facility – ST”). This transaction resulted in the extinguishment of the Credit Facility – ST. On December 18, 2018, the Company increased the borrowing limit on the Credit Facility – Other from $40 million to $50 million. The facility bears interest at a variable rate of LIBOR plus 12.50% (with a LIBOR floor of 2.00%) up to the first $40 million of borrowing, a decrease from the variable rate of LIBOR plus 13.00% (with a LIBOR floor of 2.00%) under the Credit Facility – ST. The incremental portion of facility borrowings above $40 million bears interest at a variable rate of LIBOR plus 11.00% (with a LIBOR floor of 2.00%). Consistent with the previous facility, there is a 0.33% fee on the available but undrawn portion of the $50 million facility. The Credit Facility – Other matures on July 2, 2020, compared to the maturity date of July 2, 2018 under the previous facility. The amount drawn on the new facility as at December 31, 2018 was $44.3 million (December 31, 2017 – $28.8 million) with unamortized deferred financing costs of $0.2 million (December 31, 2017 – $0.2 million) netted against the amount owing.

You’re not going to get rich borrowing money at LIBOR plus 12.5%! Indeed, as a percentage of revenues, interest expenses are 28% – they will never show a profit at that level of interest bite.

Hence the presumed justification for the merger with DCF – Michael Wekerle has invested significant resources into MOGO. MOGO is borrowing money at exorbitant rates and DCF will add some assets to MOGO’s balance sheet, which can eventually be liquidated for desperately needed cash.

Does this in any way benefit non-controlling shareholders of DCF? Not at all. This explains why DCF traded down after the transaction and MOGO traded up.

Currently, MOGO has a market capitalization of $80 million (this is after it received a good 15% rise after the DCF announcement). Will they be able to find cheaper financing? Most of their debt matures in 2020.

But either way – this is yet another example of making sure to check the motivations of controlling shareholders before you jump on board – you might find they will make decisions that will have little to do with adding value to the stock and instead use the entity for other strategic purposes.