There is no way for me to do this in size in Canada (Betfair would have been the best venue), so I’ll give this free arbitrage to the crowd following this site:
On most political betting sites, you can bet who will be the next president of the USA in the 2020 election. Trump is around 3:2 (bet $100, profit $150 if win), while Biden is around 2:3 (bet $100, profit $67 if win).
Legally, the Democrats have to nominate a presidential candidate very soon otherwise it becomes very difficult with regards to ballot access laws to have the name changed. During the 2016 election, the Donald Trump “grabbed her by the PXXXX” moment got a bunch of people interested in investigating the topic on how a major party candidate could be replaced on the ballot very late in the game. The conclusion is that by the end of August, things are more or less sealed up for a bunch of states and by mid-September most of the states are ‘locked in’. Courts would have to be petitioned at this point, which comes with obvious uncertainty.
It should be abundantly clear to a non-partisan observer that Joe Biden is suffering from dementia. It is getting to the point where the Democrats should be actively investigating whether they want him to be the nominee or not.
My arbitrage play at this point would be to sell Joe Biden (NOT Democratic Party) at this point and then liquidate the bet if he is formally nominated (which would be a neutral transaction, perhaps winning or losing 100-200bps or so in the process) or collecting a massive gain (100%) if the Democrats dump him from the presidential ticket. Hence the political arbitrage.
This would leave the question of who the Democrats would nominate, and that would be Kamala Harris, who you could get currently at 180:1 odds. I can’t find a place where I can legally purchase chances to win the Democratic nomination. After Biden is dumped I would then liquidate this bet (she would trade at least at 1:1 in the event of her nomination, so you would receive an ROI of around some 5000% percent in the process even if you got her at 100:1).
Betfair is closed to Canadians and would be one of the few credible venues where you can pull this off in any size. For those of you in the UK or elsewhere where Betfair is available, you’re welcome. At worst this is a neutral and at best you’ll get an ROI of 100% on your Biden “short sale”. I accept gift cards to fast food joints if you wish to express your appreciation after cashing in on this!
An imaginative and creative trade 🙂 My only question is about the premise:
“It should be abundantly clear to a non-partisan observer that Joe Biden is suffering from dementia.”
I’ve seen examples of Biden’s age-related cognitive decline but dementia is I think something different. What have you seen that leads you to this conclusion?
I’m not a doctor. This is not a medical diagnosis. The severity of what is being presented to the public is bad enough, behind the scenes it is probably worse.
LOL !
Interesting presidential race. A self described stable genius with a narcissistic personality disorder versus a dementia patient prone to plagiarism.
Looks like both are qualified for President!