It has been an infinitely frustrating process when you place long orders and have them completely blown away (unfilled) by market action. Like we are not talking about missing by a dime or two, we are talking missing out by 5% gap up trades.
That said, the majority of the portfolio that has been invested in the market has caught a huge tailwind. I expect it to continue.
Remember during the 2008-2009 economic crisis where in retrospect you could just stick your fingers on a multi-year stock chart on those two years and pretty much where things ended in 2007 where were they were trading at 2011? That’s the sort of scenario I envision happening, except about as fast as it did coming down.
I always remember the cliche of that psychologically there is a feeling of regret when there is a winning trade that you always wish that more capital was deployed. Tempering that feeling is knowledge of hindsight bias – one usually never thinks about the scenario where the trade goes south.
I’m going to make an observation which may or may not come to fruition. During the CoronaCrisis, I noticed that Kitco and other physical gold vendors were having significant capacity issues which is a sign of very high retail activity. Most of the inventory was sold out or shipping delayed until well into June. My speculation is as the market and economy makes a recovery that gold will continue to lag again in favour of other commodities despite the extremely loose monetary policy. Once the S&P has peaked, it’ll probably be a better time to get into physical gold – chances are by then the Canadian dollar will also have appreciated.