A short post, the market capitalization changes of the various Canadian production majors (define this as anybody over $1 billion) by market cap to present:
27-Mar-2020: TSX Oil Producers
| Name | Root Ticker | MktCap 31-Jan-2020 ($M) | MktCap 27-Mar-2020 ($M) | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suncor Energy Inc. | SU | 61,973 | 25,172 | 59.4% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited | CNQ | 44,182 | 15,811 | 64.2% |
| Imperial Oil Limited | IMO | 23,343 | 9,816 | 57.9% |
| Cenovus Energy Inc. | CVE | 14,155 | 2,887 | 79.6% |
| Husky Energy Inc. | HSE | 9,230 | 3,226 | 65.0% |
| Tourmaline Oil Corp. | TOU | 3,617 | 2,116 | 41.5% |
| Vermilion Energy Inc. | VET | 2,985 | 587 | 80.3% |
| ARC Resources Ltd. | ARX | 2,486 | 1,335 | 46.3% |
| Crescent Point Energy Corp. | CPG | 2,308 | 481 | 79.2% |
| Seven Generations Energy Ltd. | VII | 2,222 | 488 | 78.0% |
| MEG Energy Corp. | MEG | 2,024 | 365 | 82.0% |
| Whitecap Resources Inc. | WCP | 1,974 | 387 | 80.4% |
Notes:
1. Suncor alone can purchase the equity of all the remaining survivors with about half of its market cap. Note this isn’t a great comparison since all of these other companies have huge amounts of debt and companies with decent capitalization such as Suncor or CNQ can be patient and wait for them to go on the auction block during CCAA proceedings;
2. ARX presumably is less hit because it is very roughly half gas, half liquid. AECO has held up reasonably well. Likewise, TOU is majority gas and has done the best, relatively speaking.
3. What happens when spot oil heads to single digits? Oh wait! It already has in Canada. What happens when spot oil heads to negative values? Uh-oh!
There are 7 companies remaining with a market cap over $1 billion. Commodities boom and bust, and this is the worst bust since the late 90’s when oil was still trading in the low teens.
You think SU and CNQ will eliminate their dividends completely?
They’ll cut but not eliminate. CNQ’s increase is questionable to say the least.
Industry consolidation, here we go!
https://huskyenergy.com/news/release.asp?release_id=2113977&utm_source=HP1&utm_medium=HuskyCenovus&utm_campaign=INV