Article on the Financial Post of various analysts predicting where the TSX will end up in 2019. Right now it closed at 14,222. I’ve put percentages next to the predictions:
Predictions for TSX at the end of 2019:
Laurentian Bank of Canada — 18,500 points (+30.0%)
BMO Capital Markets — 18,000 points (+26.6%)
National Bank of Canada — 16,600 points (+16.7%)
Russell Investments — 16,000 points (+11.1%)
CIBC — 15,600 points (+9.7%)
Sunlife Global Investments — 15,000 points (+5.5%)
I wish this list was more comprehensive. Sadly after doing a couple minutes of scouring the internet, I could not find a decent list of December 2018 predictions made in December 2017 other than Russell Investments predicted in late 2017 that the TSX would close 2018 at 16,900. I’m sure my readers can find a more appropriate list.
All I can say is the following – the numbers above also are based on a price index. The total return of the TSX includes dividends, and this would increase the stated percentages by approximately 3%. So the worst prediction of the six above would show a total return on the TSX of roughly 8.5%.
The TSX’s total return (dividends reinvested), as measured over the past decade, is approximately a shade over +5% compounded annually. Recall that 10 years ago was in the depths of the financial crisis and was one of the best investing opportunities in a generation.
If I was a broad market investor, I’d be concerned at this degree of bullishness.