Every eyeball will be focused on the results of the US Congressional elections.
My prediction is that the Democrats will retain a narrow majority in the House, but specifically with less of a margin to where Nate Silver is currently predicting (which is 234-201). My guess is closer to 220-225 (Democrat) to 215-210 (Republican). Polling in the very politically charged environment is likely to be even more unreliable than ever.
A market surprise event would be if the Republicans retained control of Congress. I would think the potential for surprise would be on a morning pop of the S&P 500, similar to how the market was very surprised when Donald Trump got elected president. A deadlocked congress would likely be good news for Donald Trump’s 2020 presidency bid, if he so chose to run again.
Do you mean the Democrats will take* a slight majority in the House as opposed to “retain” a slight majority?
Thank you for this Safety. Yes. I guess enough people have predicted the demise of the Republicans in the House that I subconsciously used the word retain!
There’s a few seats left to be counted, Dems will likely hit around 225-ish and I’ll call this prediction a ‘win’.
OK, now that the rest of the returns are in, looks like the Democrats have 232 seats and thus this prediction is a loss!