In 2011, the Bank of Canada will have eight announcement dates for the short term interest rate target:
January 18
March 1
April 12
May 31
July 19
September 7
October 25
December 6
Currently, the BAX Futures have the following quotations:
Month / Strike | Bid Price | Ask Price | Settl. Price | Net Change | Vol. |
+ 11 JA | 0.000 | 0.000 | 98.590 | 0.015 | 0 |
+ 11 FE | 0.000 | 0.000 | 98.555 | 0.015 | 0 |
+ 11 MR | 98.540 | 98.545 | 98.540 | 0.005 | 8486 |
+ 11 JN | 98.340 | 98.350 | 98.340 | 0.010 | 14721 |
+ 11 SE | 98.160 | 98.170 | 98.160 | 0.010 | 15777 |
+ 11 DE | 98.000 | 98.010 | 98.000 | 0.000 | 14316 |
+ 12 MR | 97.850 | 97.870 | 97.850 | 0.010 | 6577 |
+ 12 JN | 97.730 | 97.750 | 97.730 | 0.010 | 2365 |
+ 12 SE | 97.620 | 97.630 | 97.610 | 0.030 | 692 |
+ 12 DE | 97.440 | 97.510 | 97.460 | 0.030 | 0 |
The markets are inferring there is a chance the Bank of Canada will raise rates by 0.25% during the March 1 meeting, and if not by then, then a good chance on April 12. Three month corporate paper is currently yielding 1.18% (98.82 on BAX). Clearly, the market is pricing in inflationary fears as opposed to factoring in economic or currency differentials, relative to the USA. For people that have floating rate mortgages or margin loans, your cost for these loans is likely to increase slightly throughout 2011.