Bank of Canada 2011 Review

In 2011, the Bank of Canada will have eight announcement dates for the short term interest rate target:

January 18
March 1
April 12
May 31
July 19
September 7
October 25
December 6

Currently, the BAX Futures have the following quotations:

Month / Strike Bid Price Ask Price Settl. Price Net Change Vol.
+ 11 JA 0.000 0.000 98.590 0.015 0
+ 11 FE 0.000 0.000 98.555 0.015 0
+ 11 MR 98.540 98.545 98.540 0.005 8486
+ 11 JN 98.340 98.350 98.340 0.010 14721
+ 11 SE 98.160 98.170 98.160 0.010 15777
+ 11 DE 98.000 98.010 98.000 0.000 14316
+ 12 MR 97.850 97.870 97.850 0.010 6577
+ 12 JN 97.730 97.750 97.730 0.010 2365
+ 12 SE 97.620 97.630 97.610 0.030 692
+ 12 DE 97.440 97.510 97.460 0.030 0

The markets are inferring there is a chance the Bank of Canada will raise rates by 0.25% during the March 1 meeting, and if not by then, then a good chance on April 12.  Three month corporate paper is currently yielding 1.18% (98.82 on BAX).  Clearly, the market is pricing in inflationary fears as opposed to factoring in economic or currency differentials, relative to the USA.  For people that have floating rate mortgages or margin loans, your cost for these loans is likely to increase slightly throughout 2011.