Skimming the Greater Vancouver Real Estate, and the Fraser Valley Real Estate statistics packages, it is not surprising in the least to see volumes decline in the July month-to-month comparisons.
The reason is very simple – the introduction of the HST and the threat of higher interest rates. While HST has an impact on new homes sold, the threat of higher interest rates also pushed demand forward. Even though short term interest rates have a smaller impact on the longer-term fixed rates than most people think, it is likely that most financially unsophisticated people would think that rates (at least in the short run) are going up, so they must “lock” their purchases in today.
Usually the opposite thinking works better – the best time to buy real estate are when interest rates are high – since real estate is a credit-driven market, one would surmise that once credit becomes more expensive, real estate demand would drop and subsequently prices would have to lower in order for transactions to proceed.
If the 50% reduction in sales reported is sustained for the following year, you are bound to see price reductions as people that need liquidity in the short-term will be forced to reduce their asking prices. The people that are not urgently seeking liquidity are more likely to sit on their high asking prices and not have a transaction occur.
In terms of sheer valuation (costs vs. income potential/rent savings), Vancouver real estate is by far and away an expensive option. I’ve already explained some other intangible components to the valuation, but one major pillar of real estate has been its “safety” perception by the local populace. Once the “real estate is safe and/or never loses value” mantra disappears, you remove one of the intangible components of demand in the market.
I do not foresee a collapse in the market like we saw in certain USA markets, but a protracted period of time where the price level does not move and/or a slow downturn in prices is likely in the cards.