Date: Tuesday, December 3, 2024
Time: 7:30pm, Pacific Time
Duration: Projected 60 minutes.
Where: Zoom (Registration)
Frequently Asked Questions:
Q: What are you doing?
A: 11 month year-to-date review, some self-flagellation, brief review of tax loss selling potential candidates, and finally time permitting, Q+A. Please feel free to ask them on the zoom registration if any questions.
Q: How do I register?
A: Zoom link is here. I’ll need your city/province or state and country, and if you have any questions in advance just add it to the “Questions and Comments” part of the form. You’ll instantly receive the login to the Zoom channel.
Q: Are you trying to spam me, try to sell me garbage, etc. if I register?
A: If you register for this, I will not harvest your email or send you any solicitations. Also I am not using this to pump and dump any securities to you, although I will certainly offer opinions on what I see.
Q: Why do I have to register? I just want to be anonymous.
A: I’m curious who you are as well.
Q: If I register and don’t show up, will you be mad at me?
A: No.
Q: Will you (Sacha) be on video (i.e. this isn’t just an audio-only stream)?
A: Yes. You’ll get to see me, but the majority will be on “screen share” mode with MS-Word / Browser / PDFs as I explain what’s going on in my mind as I present.
Q: Will I need to be on video?
A: I’d prefer it, dress code is pajamas and upwards.
Q: Can I be a silent participant?
A: Yes.
Q: Is there an archive of the video I can watch later if I can’t make it?
A: No.
Q: Will there be a summary of the video?
A: A short summary will get added to the comments of this posting after the video – assisted by Zoom AI because I can’t think for myself anymore and need to let the computer do it!
Q: Will there be some other video presentation in the future?
A: Most likely, yes.
I sat in 4000 shares of AC having bought at what I thought was the bottom of a fairly obvious channel. I waited and I waited being underwater is never fun but I found a whole new level of frustration by not being paid to wait. So I put in a limit sell order on IBKR and never thought about again until the order was filled and I watched it blow through 23,24 and who knows where it goes from here.
Sasha, I’m wondering if you gave up on CVE yet. I’m extremely close to this, never really liked the company, management and owners, but this is one of the “market will make it up, it cannot stay this cheap forever!!!” picks.
I’m personally waiting until federal election, then sell if it remains the laggard.
The market likes putting this company in the dog house but I appreciate the $1.89/share free cash flow they generated in the first 9 months this year DESPITE blowing a few hundred million on their refinery operations. With net debt down to about CAD$4 billion, this thing is pretty much a de-levered income trust trading at about 10x. Low risk, medium reward although I must say there are probably a lot of investors out there wondering if they need a shaking like what happened with Suncor.
Probably the biggest risk is that they are going to make a monumentally stupid acquisition. CNQ purchased a significant asset a couple months ago, and CVE is probably in the market to do the same. The issue is that something like MEG is still too expensive compared to the cost of simply putting drills into the ground.
Zoom AI summary:
Quick recap Sacha led a discussion on the challenges of discerning truth from fiction in the current financial and media landscape, emphasizing the importance of critical thinking and introspection. He also shared his observations on his portfolio performance, investment strategies, and experiences, highlighting his concerns about certain companies and sectors, and his cautious approach to the current market. The conversation ended with Sacha expressing lack of interest in various companies and sectors, and holding a significant cash position, indicating a cautious stance.
…
Sacha’s summary:
7 people attended – I’ve been successful at losing my audience, finally
Portfolio overview, performance
Overview of new additions, dispositions
What to do with my largest weighted position that is trading at a ridiculously high P/E
Reviewing some closing trades made over the past year (one of them is like poking needles into my eyeballs when I look at it today)
Self-flagellation on some really crappy trades I made, and trades I did NOT make
DEI
Should I take more risk and/or gamble on identified trends from companies with financial statements that do not substantiate it?
Brief Macro (interest rate, yield curve) overview
TSX tax loss tickers in 2024 (TSX items below -25% year to date which are not resource, cannabis, blockchain or biopharma blowups)