GST collections are a reasonable proxy for overall end-user spending – the metric only excludes zero-rated and excluded items, such as raw groceries and pharmaceuticals and insurance products.
For the first fiscal quarter of the year (April 1 to June 30, 2023), the Government of Canada reported a 3.6% drop in GST collections in comparison to the previous year:
Personal income tax collections are higher (presumably reflecting on higher wages and gross employment) while corporate income tax collections are lower (most certainly a function of large corporation profitability in the oil and gas sector).
The key point of this post, however, is that it appears that spending is slowing. Are people running out of money to spend?
Perhaps the most shocking part of this report is that it shows the government is in a mild surplus position (when calculating revenues minus expenses) but rest assured, the year-end fiscal projection is still for a $40 billion deficit.