Availability Bias and financial markets

Seemingly half of the economy (tourism, restaurants, entertainment/sports, etc.) have been taken away with the onset of COVID-19.

So what else can people do when they are locked away in their basements? Invest in Bitcoin.

Because I mentioned Bitcoin, I will show you a chart on how much you’ve missed out:

Do you feel jealous? Resentful that others are making money while you’re not?

Just because I brought up the issue, it went into your attention and naturally you gravitate towards an availability bias – it is on your attention so it is of higher concern.

Here’s another issue.

Back on November 27th, you could have picked 9, 15, 35, 41, 42, 45, 46 on the Lotto MAX and claimed $55 million! You missed out! Feel regret? You can take solace in the fact that others did not win on the missed fortune that was available.

Or perhaps Trillium Therpeutics (TSX: TRIL) or AcuityAds (TSX: AT)?

You’re missing out!

What about Galaxy Digital (TSX: GLXY) or Electrovaya (TSX: EFL)?

Are you feeling resentful you’re not making these 500% gains in the markets?

I hope you see where I am getting at here – there are 1,340 securities on the TSX (common stock, preferred shares, warrants) that are trading. 617 of them had a positive price return. 413 of them had a price return of 10% or greater. Likewise, 416 of them had a price return of -10% or lower.

Everybody likes to talk about the grand slam home run that won the world series (here is a video for you Toronto people, albeit one away from a grand slam), but few talk about the hitter that can hit a consistent 0.300, or even worse, the person that gets called up from the minor leagues and gets 1 hit for 28 at-bats before the person he replaced got off the disabled list and said person got sent back down again.

While Bitcoin and Telsa are highly entertaining, they suck up attention in a manner that breeds resentment. Minimize the human psychology behind it by thinking about the feasibility of predicting the next Lotto MAX numbers (and all the more power to you if you can crack that algorithm!).

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So few of the guys I knew who were trading dot-com stocks back in 2000 actually kept a good chunk of that money. And the ones who did, basically got lucky because their wife forced them to sell a bunch to buy a cottage or something. One friend went from $35,000 to over $1,000,000 back under $35,000 in the course of a year. The reality is probably most people coining money on bitcoin and Tesla will keep playing until they lose more than they “won”.

Some aggressive Pro traders will do well playing these things, but for most best just to ignore all the Bitcoin, etc. noise and focus on whatever strategy works for them.

Speaking of baseball my approach to investing is more like Ty Cobb than Barry Bonds. But man who doesn’t like that crack of the bat and watching the ball sail out of the park. My question is what happens when Tesla gets added to the index next week? Should be interesting. As for bitcoin I wish nothing but the best for those investors, the best lessons are the ones you learn through pain. Thanks for all the free content.