Finance – Page 80

Canada Pension Plan not happy with Magna

Magna International is a dual-class stock that retained control of the corporation in the Stronach family.

The Canada Pension Plan is unhappy that the corporation recently agreed to a deal with the Stronach trust to convert their class of voting stock into regular common stock, at a very high premium – $300 million in cash, plus 9 million class A shares. At today’s prices for class A shares, this works out to approximately $920 million in exchange for the voting rights of the company.

Suffice to say, shareholders are not too happy about the matters, including the Canada Pension Plan.

However, this should be a huge lesson to those that invest in majority-controlled companies – your interests have to line up with the interests of the majority holder in order for you to make any headway on your investment. In the case of Magna, its majority holder (Stronach) clearly wants as much cash and liquidity out of the corporation as possible – and the common shareholders, including those invested in the Canada Pension Plan, will be paying the price.

What is interesting, however, is that the deal was structured in a politically astute manner – common shares went up after the announcement since Magna was already trading at a discount due to the adverse interests of the majority holder. It is the company, however, that will be paying the price to buy out the Stronach voting stake.

If you have shares in companies that are majority controlled, pay careful attention to these agency issues.

Questrade – Nickel and diming

Although I do not use Questrade’s platform for active traders, I do use their basic web-based interface. I don’t look at it too often since I don’t actively trade with the account, but I notice they are trying to implementing a cap on the amount of real-time quotes you can request to 1,000 per month. Anything else above that would cost 1 cent each. This doesn’t really affect me, but I was curious as to why they made the decision.

My guess is that it was designed to prevent an abuse of the system where you can pull data through the service with an application like Quotetracker or something. I did ask their customer support the following question:

Is there any way that the real-time quotations can be disabled after the free 1,000 quotes per month are reached? Or will there be any way to know how many quotes I have used in a month to date?

Their answer was the following:

Unfortunately there is no method to view how quotes have been utilized. We are, however, working to have a feature implemented on our platforms. In the meantime, please contact us and we will advise you of how many you have used. Thank you and I apologize for the inconvenience during this process.

I find this to be very silly on both a business and user interface perspective.

First, the data fees they pay to the exchanges to provide their customers with real-time quotes is probably on a fixed-price basis (either for the whole company or per-customer), so the excuse they gave for implementing a price is nonsensical. Secondly, it is very likely that customers that have more ready access to real-time data will trade more, generating more commissions for them, so by charging for quotations it is likely detrimental to their business of transacting trades. Thirdly, a customer has no idea whether they will be incurring billing for quotations, and asking for a customer to contact support for something like this is ridiculous for both parties.

It looks like this was a snap decision and done without any serious thoughts of the repercussions.

I continue to use Questrade for registered accounts (RRSP, TFSA) and non-registered holdings of TSX debentures, but as I mentioned in my previous review of them, security continues to be a lingering concern for me. They really need to implement a policy whereby if your accounts get hacked that they will cover you – similar to BMO Investorline, etc. Until then, my recommendation of them is lukewarm.

Loyalty program points are subject to inflation

I note with amusement that Shopper’s Drug Mart is devaluing their “loyalty program” points by about 9-18%, effective July 1, 2010. I am sure there will be some sort of uproar about it.

Before, you needed the following points to redeem the following dollars:
7,000 – $10 (700 points/$)
15,000 – $25 (600 points/$)
30,000 – $55 (545 points/$)
40,000 – $75 (533 points/$)
75,000 – $150 (500 points/$)

Effective July 1, 2010 it will be:
8,000 – $10 (800 points/$) – 12.5% devaluation
22,000 – $30 (733 points/$) – 18.1% devaluation
38,000 – $60 (633 points/$) – 13.9% devaluation
50,000 – $85 (588 points/$) – 9.4% devaluation
95,000 – $170 (559 points/$) – 10.6% devaluation

Whenever dealing with any sort of currency, including “points” (of which the vendors have no legal requirement to redeem for any acceptable value whatsoever) you always have to be aware of its purchasing power and the chance that such purchasing power will decrease in the future.

I personally find it a pain to participate in any of these programs (who wants to keep extra cards in their wallet?), but there is a significant segment of the population that are actually influenced into making uneconomical decisions by offers of air miles or “save-on-more”. This is presumably why these marketing programs exist – to enhance lock-in of consumer dollars. For those that participate in it, it is best to cash out their holdings as early as they can since you will never see an increase in the purchasing power of your points – essentially, there is a negative interest rate on points earned through loyalty programs.

In the event of holding cash, Canadian dollars have inflated away over the past 96 years at the rate of 3.13% according to the Bank of Canada. If you wish to retain any sort of purchasing power, you are forced to invest your cash somewhere – at the very minimum, a short term high-yield savings account will help stem the decay of the purchasing power of cash.

There is no “investment” option with respect to loyalty programs, which is why points and perks for putting up with the hassle of these marketing programs should be cashed out immediately. If you do a lot of dollar volume business with a particular retailer offering such a program, it probably makes economic sense to sign up. However, it makes no sense whatsoever to not liquidate the proceeds when you can for something that you find useful.

Market commentary for Friday

As I write this, the major US indexes are down about 3-3.5%, while the TSX is down about 2%. The usual things in market downturns are happening today – US dollar is rising, Canadian dollar is down relative to the US dollar (nearly two pennies), and there is a rush into US treasuries. Apparently this might be due to another EU country that is on the verge of requiring a bailout, but this was to be expected.

Due to the fixed-income nature of my portfolio, it is relatively stable today – assisted somewhat by the exchange rate fluctuation, but even when you back it out the damage is less than half a percentage point. Although my cash balance is roughly 8%, some of the securities in the portfolio have very little volatility and thus the risk-reward is ratio is minimized. I receive a decent return while waiting and this is by design.

Patience, and stalking targets for purchase is all you can do when the marketplace starts to become volatile. For those that have taken out cheap money on margin and invested it into the marketplace, you can be sure that they are starting to feel a lot of pressure to liquidate and reduce their leverage ratios. Ideally, you want these people to liquidate at exactly the wrong time, and at the same time, and you want to be there to place a bid for those shares or securities that are trading well below your estimated fair value, and you have sufficient buying power (or a whole bunch of cash) to take advantage of the situation.

I am continuing to look at low volatility equities and am really not interested in increasing the risk in my portfolio at present. The reward just isn’t there and there still isn’t enough panic factored into the marketplace.

Also, 2010 has so far been the lowest volatility year to date. Right now the portfolio is less than 1% down from the end of March 2010 (where I stated that I don’t expect much more in the way of performance for the rest of the year).

Merits of technical analysis

Some people claim they can trade by just reading charts. I am not one of them.

However, marketplaces that are crowded with technical traders will have the ability to be successful in the short run. The technical end of the stock market are zero-sum gamers employing algorithms that take advantage of weaker algorithms.

Thus, I do believe in the validity of technical analysis. I just don’t think many people can do it – at a minimum if you are not cognizant of your “enemies” (i.e. other traders) are up to, then you are the proverbial fish around the poker table.

One branch of physics, called econophysics, heavily depends on technical data to drive conclusions. Back in my university days, I dabbled in an econophysical model which was an interesting study. Some professors have taken it to the next level, and have mined technical data to try to predict market crashes, with partial success.

In absence of fundamental data, the model might be successful in predicting algorithmic activity, rather than being a crash predictor.