A great money-making ETF vessel is closing

Retail holders of the TVIX exchange-traded product were getting ripped off by institutional investors for years. Sadly this product, which has a market capitalization of $1.2 billion dollars (and a management expense ratio of 1.65%, so not a trivial money-maker for the issuer) will cease trading on a public exchange on July 10. The notes themselves will still exist, but operate in a “wind-down” state which means that there is going to be quite a bit of havoc in terms of its market value vs. the underlying index it is supposed to track.

TVIX leveraged its asset value into futures contracts of the two front-end months of VIX. As of June 23, 2020, 79% of its notional value was in July VIX futures and 21% in the August month. This gyration of selling the short-month and longing the second month was an excuse for institutional shareholders to siphon money from ETF holders that were silly enough to hold onto it for more than a one day period. Incidentally, other futures-linked ETFs (e.g. commodity ETFs such as USO) exhibit the same characteristics.

To put an amount on this, at a VIX value of 34, to maintain a double exposure to $1.2 billion notional value of volatility, the TVIX fund would have had to hold about 55,700 contracts of July VIX futures, and 14,800 contracts of August VIX futures. 111,000 futures contracts in July traded today.

The effective closure of the TVIX ETF, which was the largest volatility ETF, might work for the benefit of other volatility ETFs. It might also increase the volatility of volatility futures (wrap your head around that one).

My guess is that Credit Suisse is getting skittish on this product blowing up on them in a catastrophic manner.

Evening Finance with Sacha, Episode 5

Late Night Finance with Sacha, Episode 5

Date: Thursday, June 25
Time: 6:00pm, Pacific Time *** NOTE NEW TIME
Duration: Projected 1 hour.
Where: Zoom (Registration)

Frequently Asked Questions:

Q: What are you doing?
A: I’m going to be giving some quarter-ending commentary, a selection of economic statistics, and then opening it up for very general Q&A on any topic. I’m guessing the commentary will go for about 10-15 minutes and the Q&A will fill up the rest of the time, until one hour is consumed or nobody has any questions.

Q: Why are you doing this?
A: Continuing my experimentation in video broadcasting. Who knows, I might learn something from you as well.

Q: How do I register?
A: Zoom link is here. I’ll need your city/province or state, and if you have any questions in advance just add it to the “Questions and Comments” part of the form. You’ll instantly receive the login to the Zoom channel.

Q: Are you trying to spam me, try to sell me garbage, etc. if I register?
A: I can hardly manage a mailing list without breaking my own website, what makes you think I will spam you? No, if you register for this, I will not harvest your email or send you any solicitations. Also I am not using this to pump and dump any securities to you, although I will certainly offer opinions on what I see.

Q: Why do I have to register? I just want to be anonymous.
A: I’m curious who you are as well.

Q: If I register and don’t show up, will you be mad at me?
A: No.

Q: Will you (Sacha) be on video (i.e. this isn’t just an audio-only stream)?
A: Yes. You’ll get to see me.

Q: Will I need to be on video?
A: I’d prefer it, and you are more than welcome to be in your pajamas. No judgements!

Q: Can I be a silent participant?
A: Yes.

Q: Is there an archive of the video I can watch later if I can’t make it?
A: No.

Q: Will there be a summary of the video?
A: A short summary will get added to the comments of this posting after the video.

Q: Is there a limit to the people that can participate?
A: Zoom limits me to 100. I really hope the number isn’t higher than 10.

Q: Will there be some other video presentation in the future?
A: Yes.

Making sense of central bank information

The federal reserve’s balance sheet is telling of where monetary policy is going:

(You can view the longer term chart here)

It peaked on June 10th and the next week’s update (June 17th) showed a minor contraction.

From the last interest rate announcement, we had the following implementation note:

* Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of Treasury securities, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) at least at the current pace to sustain smooth functioning of markets for these securities, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.
* Conduct term and overnight repurchase agreement operations to support effective policy implementation and the smooth functioning of short-term U.S. dollar funding markets.
* Conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 0.00 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily increased at the discretion of the Chair.
* Roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities and reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency MBS in agency MBS and all principal payments from holdings of agency CMBS in agency CMBS.

Things are continuing, but monetary injection is not going to be the rocket ship that it was. The 3 trillion dollars of liquidity thrown into the system will have to take its time to transmit into the real economy (if indeed, it does at all).

I will point out that during the 2008-2009 economic crisis, essentially the same response was there – the primary liquidity injection was done in the 4th quarter of 2008, but it took some time from 2009 onwards in order for stock prices to really jump up. All analogies have different variables at play, and this is most certainly not the 2008-2009 economic crisis (nor the great depression) so again, the playbook here is going to be quite different.

I’ll also point out that the Bank of Canada is getting into the business of inflating its own balance sheet, albeit not nearly at the pace that the Federal Reserve has (even adjusting for the relative sizes of the countries).

Dangers of investing in dual class structures

Apparently some institutional shareholders are feeling the political pressure of the company’s ridiculously high executive compensation schemes. They’re voting against the “say on pay” resolution on the upcoming AGM.

Major Bombardier Inc. shareholder and supporter Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec is voting against the company’s executive pay practices at its coming shareholder meeting.

It’s one of a number of major North American pension plans that intend to rebuff Bombardier’s compensation program. Some, including the Caisse, have grown sufficiently discontented to oppose reappointing directors to the company’s board.

Bombardier, like most major Canadian companies, submits its compensation program to shareholders for a non-binding “say-on-pay” vote at its annual meeting. Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB), British Columbia Investment Management Corp. (BCI), as well as two major pensions from California and one from Florida, also say they are voting “no” Thursday.

At issue this year is Bombardier paying former chief executive Alain Bellemare a severance package of US$12.35-million when he was terminated in March, as well as promised future special payments and potential severance packages to other top executives when a deal to sell the company’s train division closes in 2021.

This is purely political posturing to the public to justify holding Class B shares (2.1 billion outstanding) in the company. Bombardier’s Class A shares (309 million outstanding) have 10 votes each, which give its holders effective control of the company. Bombardier’s Class A shares are currently trading at about a 30% premium over the Class B shares, so the market does ascribe some value to the voting component.

There is little remedy for the subordinate shareholders other than to sell if they wish to voice their opinion. This happens in any dual-class share structure company, where typically the founders get the supervoting majority to stack the board. You have cases like Berkshire (NYSE: BRK.A) and Fairfax (TSX: FFH) where you are being a silent partner to Warren Buffett/Prem Watsa, but you also have cases like Dundee (TSX: DC.A), which have made disastrous capital allocation decisions in the past decade (will they get their act together for the next one? Insiders are at least buying now). There are also firms like Biglari Holdings (NYSE: BH), where the controlling shareholder basically has open contempt for its subordinate shareholders – don’t like me? Go ahead and sell! Zuckerberg at Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) also has expressed the same sentiment – my way or the highway.

In all of these cases, investors, especially institutional ones, should know what they have gotten into. This doesn’t mean they can’t complain, but when it comes to exercising power to compel the board of directors to tell management to change their practices, the influence is very weak since controlling shareholders will always be able to replace potentially dissenting directors with those that favour their interests. In the case of Bombardier, who wants to give up $150-$190k for being a human rubber stamp?

(By the way, this board is far too large).

The only way to get any sort of leverage on an entrenched board is to own enough of the debt in a distressed situation, and then you will be able to get enough attention of management by the time the maturity comes to extract better terms. But these situations are rare, and they more often end up with management engaging in asset stripping and other extraction activities to the detriment of both shareholders and debtholders alike before they finally lose control.

Evening Finance with Sacha, Episode 4

Late Night Finance with Sacha, Episode 4

Date: Wednesday, June 17
Time: 6:00pm, Pacific Time *** NOTE NEW TIME
Duration: Projected 1 hour.
Where: Zoom (Registration)

Frequently Asked Questions:

Q: What are you doing?
A: I’ll be talking about TSX-traded debentures and discussing some of the specific ones that are trading. Questions during this presentation, both on and off topic, are accepted. The entire universe is linked here.

Q: Why are you doing this?
A: Continuing my experimentation in video broadcasting. Who knows, I might learn something from you as well.

Q: How do I register?
A: Zoom link is here. I’ll need your city/province or state, and if you have any comments (or a debenture that you are interested in) just add it to the “Questions and Comments” part of the form. You’ll instantly receive the login to the Zoom channel.

Q: Are you trying to spam me, try to sell me garbage, etc. if I register?
A: I can hardly manage a mailing list without breaking my own website, what makes you think I will spam you? No, if you register for this, I will not harvest your email or send you any solicitations. Also I am not using this to pump and dump any securities to you, although I will certainly offer opinions on what I see.

Q: Why do I have to register? I just want to be anonymous.
A: I’m curious who you are as well.

Q: If I register and don’t show up, will you be mad at me?
A: No.

Q: Will you (Sacha) be on video (i.e. this isn’t just an audio-only stream)?
A: Yes. You’ll get to see me.

Q: Will I need to be on video?
A: I’d prefer it, and you are more than welcome to be in your pajamas. No judgements!

Q: Can I be a silent participant?
A: Yes.

Q: Is there an archive of the video I can watch later if I can’t make it?
A: No.

Q: Will there be a summary of the video?
A: A short summary will get added to the comments of this posting after the video.

Q: Is there a limit to the people that can participate?
A: Zoom limits me to 100. I really hope the number isn’t higher than 10.

Q: Will there be some other video presentation in the future?
A: Yes.