Divestor

Right now, 338 Canada has the following:

LIB 136 ** rounded down from 136.6 to make the total 338 seats
CPC 123
Bloc 39
NDP 36
Green 2
PPC 1
IND 1 (Jody-Wilson)

If this is the outcome, it is quite probable the Liberals will get together with the NDP, either in a coalition (where NDP ministers get appointed) or unofficially (similar to in British Columbia where there is a supply agreement that gives the 3 Green Party MLAs more power far above what their electoral standing would otherwise give them).

The implications to this will be fairly clear:

1) TMX is dead
2) BC-LNG will probably face huge hurdles (the Coastal Gaslink natural gas pipeline is provincially regulated) which will probably face regulatory federal barriers… and this will be at odds with the provincial BC NDP government – it will be interesting to see what concessions will occur here.
3) Carbon taxes will be guaranteed to rise, and in general, costs will rise significantly
4) Erosion of the Canadian dollar
5) Probable increases in corporate tax and capital gains taxes

If your money is anywhere around oil and gas in Canada (or pretty much anything for that matter), things will probably get worse.

However, with the surge in the NDP in the polls, this actually bodes well for the Conservatives in certain areas (recall in 2011 that a majority government was obtained with the assistance of the NDP sucking up what would otherwise have been Liberal votes). Because of this and the “shy Tory” effect (where Conservative voters are less likely to report to polling agencies their support), there are alternate scenarios which may surprise people on election day, e.g.

CPC 140
LIB 119
Bloc 39
NDP 36
Green 2
PPC 1
IND 1

In this case you get a CPC-Quebec informal alliance. There is also the outside possibility of a LIB-Bloc-NDP coalition, which was attempted after the 2008 election, which I would not entirely rule out, especially if the CPC can’t get together with the Bloc in any material capacity. There’d be another election in a short time frame to hash things out.

So, various scenarios to look out for:
If LIB > 169, apparently being massively hypocritical and corrupt is rewarded with votes as long as food is on the table;
If LIB+NDP+Green > 169, then it’s a probable Liberal government again, sell everything;
If LIB+Bloc > 169, you’ll still get PM Trudeau, then get ready for Quebec subsidy mania! (pick some stocks on https://divestor.com/?p=8934 and might as well buy some call options on SNC while you’re at it)

The plurality of seats condition kicks in if LIB+NDP+Green or LIB+Bloc+Green < 170, which in that case the CPC would have more seats than the Liberals. Despite news headlines and Justin Trudeau himself (in 2015) saying that the party with the most seats should have the first chance to govern, it isn’t apparent to me that Trudeau will step down until he tries to negotiate some sort of anti-CPC coalition. Watch out for Liberal/NDP headlines saying “2/3rds of Canadians did not vote for a Conservative government” and stuff to that extent to try to make a moral argument why the Liberals should stay in. My guess is that if the Liberals fall 15 seats short of the CPC but still have a workable coalition, they’ll do it. Anything more than a 15 seat difference with the CPC and keeping government becomes more difficult.

The only defense the CPC has (other than an obvious out-right majority) is a CPC+Bloc arrangement (if their seat count is 170 or above). Despite seeming odd to partner with separatists, this was successfully done before: in 1984 and 1988, where the Progressive Conservatives (under Brian Mulroney) successfully formed an internal coalition with the Quebec separatists to win two majority governments. This fractured badly in the early 1990’s and the Bloc Quebecois were created as a result – in addition to destroying the Progressive Conservatives (leading to the uprise of the Reform Party).

A potential CPC+Bloc arrangement will likely involve trading some provincial concessions for energy-positive developments strictly on the west coast of Canada.  It would take shape in the form of provincial autonomy and decentralization of federal powers (closer to what the Canadian constitution was formed as), which was fairly standard Harper-style governance.  The next month will be interesting to say the least.

Following up on my previous post that I predict the Bloc Québécois will be the big winner in the 2019 election, it makes me wonder about Quebec-listed Canadian companies.

It is likely that in a Liberal minority government situation, they will require on the implicit support of the BQ in order to maintain power in government. Hence, there will be subsidies galore, in addition to Quebec-friendly policies.

Attached is a table of the 80 TSX-listed companies with Quebec headquarters. The list is a bit too much to go into any individual detail, but there are a few interesting ones here. For instance, who wants to speculate the SNC-Lavalin’s problems will magically disappear overnight? They solved most of their balance sheet problems with the partial sale of the 407 Freeway. How about Bombardier and their perpetual reliance on government subsidies to function? The list goes on and on! To make this even spicier, my largest undisclosed equity position is in the following list (completely unrelated to the thesis that the winds of the federal government are behind the backs of Québecers, although it’s certainly a bonus!).

Bonne Chance!

TSX Listed Companies from Quebec