Canadian dollar at parity to US Dollar

For the first time in about two years, and a rare event in a generation, the Canadian dollar is worth the same as a US dollar. The following is a three-year chart of the Canadian Dollar vs. the US Dollar:

This can probably be explained by a few factors:

1. Rate differentials: The Bank of Canada is expected to have a higher interest rate than the US Federal Reserve, thus moving carry trade dollars into the Canadian currency;
2. Commodities: Canada is seen internationally as being concentrated with commodity markets. Thus, more demand for Canadian dollars due to high exports of more expensive commodities;
3. Fiscal factors: The Canadian government is less of a fiscal basket case than the US government, thus inspiring confidence in Canadian bonds, thus giving the currency higher value.

The question is whether this trend will continue or whether there will be some sort of regression of the mean (the Canadian dollar traditionally has been around 80 cents US throughout its lifetime). I truly don’t know.

With a strengthened dollar, consumers win because their dollars have higher purchasing power. Prices in Canada are always higher than in the United States, so a cross-border shopping trip will probably have more value realized.

Also, investors should probably take a look at currency concentration and perhaps consider diversifying into US equities if they are primarily concentrated in Canadian currency.

Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage

Anybody investing in oil should know the fundamentals of how the oil is extract out of the ground. The traditional (called conventional) method is used in places like Saudi Arabia – sticking a tube in a strategically-located position in the ground and sucking up the contents.

Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage was an invention that has lead to the opening up of oil reserves that otherwise would have been inaccessible. There are quite a few companies in the Alberta area that use this to mine oil. A very basic example of how this works is on Cenovus’ website, which is semi-education and semi-corporate propoganda.

Cenovus used to be part of Encana, Canada’s largest natural gas producing company. They split off last year.

The other form of mining, taking tar sands (bitumen) from the surface and processing the material, is done by companies such as Suncor, and generally give the industry a perception of being environmentally damaging.

As the price of oil continues to increase, alternative methods become increasingly economical and it is well worth it for an investor to educate themselves on the processes used to extract energy from the earth.

Why are so many Canadian finance writers anonymous?

I have an inherent distrust of writers on the internet that choose to remain anonymous. Quoting James Hymas, who shares my sentiment on the issue:

I consider it highly important in this wonderful world of looney-tunes in which we live that somebody making a claim get hurt – either directly in the pocketbook, or (as in the case of academics) in reputation – if they make a mistake.

This is an important principle of accountability. People that are unable to attach their own true identities with their opinions should be viewed with much skepticism.

The people that I have linked to the sidebar of this site are people that have their real names associated with them. I have found so few people that are willing to stick their necks out with their real name that it is rather disappointing.

Brokerage firms in Canada – Interactive Brokers Review

The choice of brokerage firm for individuals is not that relevant of a decision unless if you are a very active trader (and hence want to reduce your commissions or want fancy charting packages to give you a better read of your tea leaves). Ultimately, most brokerages provide the same core services, with some nuances to distinguish them.

I personally use two brokerages: Interactive Brokers and Questrade. In the past I also used BMO Investorline for my RRSP, but eventually migrated that to Questrade strictly on the basis of transaction costs.

Interactive Brokers

I have used Interactive Brokers since they were allowed to open in Canada in 2002. They are the best brokerage firm available to retail investors, bar none. They have automated practically every aspect of the service they deliver. You can also trade any electronically-traded product on the planet for an extremely low commission – if you make liquidity-providing trades (i.e. you don’t buy at the ask or sell at the bid) you can trade Canadian stocks at roughly 50 cents for 100 shares, and US stocks for roughly 30 cents per 100 shares. They have four “killer features” which I consider significant in my decision to stick with them:

a. You can trade nearly any financial product on the planet through their system, in any currency, and it is all seamlessly integrated. The only product which they do not trade for some strange reason are TSX-traded corporate debentures. Once you enter in your trade, they have an automated executed system which will route your order to the best available location. They support order types of any imaginable variety – including “conditional” orders and time-based orders. Their trading software, TWS, is very, very powerful.

Just note that while you can trade securities in far-off exchanges (e.g. out in Asia or Europe) doesn’t mean you should be!

b. Currency exchange. I am kind of amused at discussion forums asking where you can get the best rates to converting currency – most brokerages charge a 2% spread. With Interactive Brokers, the spread is the market, which is usually around 0.0001 for the CAD-USD pair. For people that do cross-currency transactions, this amounts to substantial cost savings.

c. Security. Once your account gets above a particular balance, IB will mail you a digital device in the mail, which is required to authenticate your login whenever you try to access your account. This is an ironclad way of security, even if somebody compromises your username and password, they still cannot compromise your account until they have the physical device. I generally feel that my money in Interactive Brokers is absolutely secure. Also, they are publicly traded, so you could judge whether they will be going into a financial meltdown (like E-Trade did) – but they are managed quite conservatively and survived 2008 very well.

d. Very inexpensive margin rates. For those that want to borrow money, you can do so at rates that are nearly impossible to get elsewhere. For example, right now you can borrow Canadian dollars at 1.768%. If you borrow more than $120,000, your rate is 1.268%. If you borrow more than $1,100,000, your rate is 0.768%. These are variable with the bank rate, so after July, this will likely increase. Credit available with Interactive Brokers is such that if you intend on borrowing money, it becomes a very simple procedure to dump securities into Interactive Brokers and withdraw the cash, which creates a self-secured tax-deductible loan vehicle.

Contrast this with the purchase of real estate, and getting an HELOC – the HELOC will have a higher rate, guaranteed.

The only trick with using margin, however, is making sure that the collateral (the assets backing up the loan) don’t lose value!

There is no point in borrowing money elsewhere when Interactive Brokers makes it so cheap. It brings up the real possibility of leveraging up in various fixed income securities and doing what every other bank on the planet is doing – which is made possible by Interactive Brokers – again, just make sure the assets you invest in don’t lose value.

The disadvantages of Interactive Brokers, however, are significant for most financially unsophisticated individuals – you have to know exactly what you are doing, otherwise you will likely make an errant trade and lose money. The TWS is not an easy-to-learn piece of software and nobody is going to be there to hold your hand, although there is ample documentation to read if you wish to self-educate. Other disadvantages is they do not do RRSPs or TFSAs (or anything else registered) – it takes them too much paperwork and compliance costs so they will not offer them. They do not offer TSX-traded debentures, which is something readers of this site will know that I have dabbled with. Finally, they do have ‘inactivity’ fees, where you will be charged a minimum of $10 a month minus the amount of commissions that month. So if you only rack up $3 of commissions for the month, they will dock you another $7. This is a minor amount, but for people with small accounts, Interactive Brokers is definitely not for them.

Customer support is done through a ticket creation system – one of their reps will look at it and give an appropriate response. It is rare that support will be needed, but all of the times I’ve had to send an inquiry, the response time was very prompt. For people that like talking on the phone for support, however, I doubt they will find Interactive Brokers adequate at all – they don’t hold the hands of their customers.

Getting money in and out of the account is easily performed through EFT. For larger quantities of money, they also support wire transfers.

In summary, Interactive Brokers is a very powerful brokerage – If Interactive Brokers offered RSP/TFSA accounts and offered TSX-traded debentures, I would be using them for everything. I would not recommend them for everybody, however.

I did this review without remuneration.

Apple vs. Microsoft – Stock valuation

Apple’s market capitalization is very close to Microsoft’s – $214 billion vs. $256 billion.

So if Apple’s stock goes up another 19.5% (from $235.97 to $282.03/share) they will be caught up. The amount of net cash both companies have on their balance sheets are similar. On the income side, Apple has $9.4 billion in net income for the past 4 quarters, while Microsoft has $16.3 billion.

The question of the day is the following: If you managed to find $256 billion in spare change behind the couch and were forced to buy Microsoft or Apple (and just one; no diversification allowed!), which would you buy?

My gut instinct (rather than any rigorous financial analysis – of which I haven’t bothered to perform) suggests that while I’d rather pick Apple over Vancouver real estate, Apple is only second to Amazon in terms of hype-driven valuation.

Of note right now is that Cisco and Intel combined trade at around $272 billion.