Investing in structured products

After alluding to disposing of a long corporate bond position, I received some comments as to what the exact ticker is of the issue in question. There were enough hints in the post to figure out the product, but I will be more explicit in this post.

Now that I have completely disposed of the position today, the ticker in question is (NYSE: HJR). This is one (of many, many) examples of an exchange-traded structured product. The specific structure is a trust that has a single asset – corporate senior bonds of Limited Brands (6.95% coupon, maturing March 1, 2033). The trust’s mission in life is to distribute income coming out of that bond. The trust itself has $25,340,000 worth of 6.95% corporate bonds and the distribution is at a 7.00% rate.

You can read the exact specification of the trust by reading its prospectus.

Effectively you are investing in a corporate bond that is exchange-traded. The payout times are identical to the bond, with the exception of the coupon (7.00% on the trust vs. 6.95% with the corporate bond) and that trades do not incur interest expense/revenue for a purchase/sale of securities. An investor purchasing one unit of HJR will receive a $0.875 payout every March 1 and September 1 until March 2033, where they will receive a $25.875 payout.

At the current transaction price of $24.40, an investor has a 7.2% current yield on investment, or about a 7.5% yield to maturity for a 22.6 year term.

There are slightly different risks involved with the structured product. The largest change is that the structured products have a “call provision” where the unitholder, if held in sufficient quantity, can redeem the trust in exchange for the underlying bond. This call provision ensures that there is an effective cap on the unit price, even if the underlying bond trades at a premium.

There are a couple hundred of these products trading on the exchanges – some are extremely illiquid, and in the example of HJR, it is lucky to have $50,000 par value traded daily. The spread is typically 40 cents.

As I have indicated before, I have recently liquidated my entire position in HJR as I do not feel the risk/reward ratio is right for my portfolio. Other investors that are looking for a stable 7.2% yield on a senior corporate security could consider HJR. It is still a far, far more inferior option at present than buying the actual corporate debt, which is priced at around 90 cents. Since HJR is trading around 97 cents on the dollar, I am very puzzled at the high price and hence sold my position. The bid is obviously from an irrational retail source.

There are other structured products carrying the exact same bond as collateral, and they are trading at more reasonable prices. If the products were marginable, there would be an obvious arbitrage opportunity.

Exchange-traded structured products are very research-intense. Although most of them have standardized provisions, there are some that have odd-ball provisions that require you to look at the prospectus of each and every security that you are considering. Once you have cleared the research hurdle, however, they are worth looking at. In late 2008 and early 2009, these products were being thrown out the windows of financial intuitions. At the depth of the financial crisis, HJR was trading for $8.40 (33.6 cents to par) and suffice to say, I thought this was one of the greatest opportunities the market was offering especially in consideration with the risk taken (the seniority of the bond ranks you ahead of common shareholders).

Although you would have done slightly better with an equity investment at the same time, you earned your capital gain with a significantly lower level of risk, in addition to having the luxury of having a well-defined exit point (at the lastest, the maturity date). You were also being paid a handsome sum of money to wait.

In the case of HJR, and in the case of a lot of other asset-backed securities that give out a yield, it is close to the time where it is worth liquidating the positions. As the 10-year bond yield is heading toward record lows, chasing yield will become more and more dangerous.

Anatomy of a trade decision

As I indicated previously, I am interested in trimming my long-term bond positions since I believe the market for less-than-stellar debt is becoming expensive for the risk taken.

Although I am adverse to income taxes, you should never let income taxation be the overriding factor in the decision to sell – valuation should be the primary consideration, along with your portfolio considerations, and then income taxes should be a secondary consideration.

An example today was trimming a trust preferred (which held a corporate bond) position in Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) that I have held onto since late 2008. The security is due to mature in 23 years from now (March 1, 2033) and pays a 7% coupon semi-annually. The underlying company’s equity is trading relatively high, has a moderate amount of debt ($2.6 billion debt vs. $1.2 billion cash on hand), good income ($560M in the last 12 months) and an excellent brand name. So the underlying company, in the short and medium run, is likely to be solvent and be able to raise money and retain their cash generation abilities. It would not surprise me if they were able to be solvent in 23 years to pay off the underlying debt. My cost basis on the units are 35 cents on the dollar, which represents one of the best trades I have done in some time, but this will also represent a large capital gain when liquidating.

Back then, 35 cents on the dollar meant you got to collect a 20% current yield, and another 4.5% implied capital gain by waiting patiently. Now, the market has taken all of those coupon payments and gains and transformed them into a higher unit price – so instead of waiting 20+ years to realize that money, you can do it now. What I am trying to say here is – your cost basis is irrelevant except for factoring in the cost of capital gains taxation. The current market value that you can liquidate the securities with is the relevant factor – if I have $X that I can liquidate from this security, can I deploy it elsewhere more efficiently than the implied 7.7% it is paying me?

So why trim the position? 7.7% sounds pretty good over 23 years, doesn’t it?

There are a few reasons.

– The valuation appears high. At the current trading price (94 cents on the dollar) it is significantly higher than the underlying bond’s price that is available through TRACE. At 94 cents, your current yield is 7.4%, and your implied capital gain (which is the 6 cents of appreciation you earn upon maturity) is another 0.3%, so your total yield is 7.7%. While a 7.7% yield is about 4% higher than you can get with underlying treasury bonds, it still is not a sufficient threshold.

– I want to increase my cash balances. While I believe the next big macroeconomic move in the economy will be an inflationary cycle, it will completely depend on the timing of US politics. Right now the US economy is dominated by political considerations and this is why most businesses are choosing to hoard cash – since in times of political uncertainty you do not know the return on investment. A more business-friendly administration would result in a large inflationary spike. Right now we have the exact opposite of a business-friendly administration.

– I want to shorten the duration and term of my bond portfolio, for pretty much the point I made above.

– I do not need the yield, but apparently others do. They are willing to pay for liquidity, so I am willing to give it to them for a cost – they have to meet my asking price on the exchange.

– I am afraid that interest rates, while very low by historical standards, may increase. I am also not concerned to waiting a longer period of time for those rates to rise, and get to hold onto my capital in the meantime to perhaps deploy to a better area.

– Maybe the underlying business will face a downturn. It is in the consumer fashion industry, and while the Victoria’s Secret brand is unlikely to degrade anytime soon, maybe consumers will be a little more fickle in the future. I have no clue when it comes to retail fashion which trends will stay and which will not and can only evaluate these companies from a financial perspective. A great example is Coach (NYSE: COH), which to my neanderthal male mind, mainly makes handbags and accessories. But somehow this company produces insane amounts of cash. Will this trend continue? Who knows. But what I see financially there is a cash machine. I generally ask fashion conscious women for insight on these various names once in awhile to see what the intangible aspects of the brands are.

I am giving up a further potential upside of about 6% capital appreciation (since the trust preferreds contain a call provision they will not trade much above par value) in exchange for the safety and security of cold, hard cash. Right now I do not have any targets for my cash, so I will continue to be patient. Eventually the equity markets will contract and some opportunities will present themselves. It is unlikely it will ever be like late 2008 for awhile, but we will see.

Credit card review – MBNA Smartcash Platinum

I have been using the MBNA Smartcash (3% off groceries/gas (5% in the first 6 months), 1% off everything else, paid in $50 increments) for the last five months and I generally am impressed that it has worked as advertised. They have an online interface where you can review your transactions and it is a functional, no-frills site. The two $50 cheques they have sent to me so far come in the mail a couple weeks after the statement date, and slightly to my surprise, have not bounced or come with ridiculous conditions and such.

I am guessing they send cheques instead of crediting the account automatically because they anticipate a certain fraction of people will not actually cash in their $50 cheques.

I used to use the Starbucks Visa Duetto Card (sponsored by RBC) which gave you 1% in “Starbucks money” which I used as a luxury item since there is no way that I could have otherwise rationalized it. They (either RBC or Starbucks, depending on who you believe) canceled the cards this spring, so when doing my shopping for a better credit card, I settled on the MBNA one.

My only negative is that they send out cheques in the monthly statements, and I always put these through the paper shredder simply because writing cheques off a credit card is hideously expensive and also because of the fraud consideration. I also was very quick to get off of their telemarketing spam list since they were selling useless products (likely “balance protection insurance”), but after that they have been non-spammers.

Note I was not paid to write this, these are my germane thoughts as a retail consumer on the product in question.

Investment Vacation Mode

I have still been somewhat on investment vacation mode – I have not been making any portfolio alterations, and have been letting time pass by.

It is a very, very, very important concept in investing that decision be made with the fullest of convictions, after research. It is usually a good way to lose money to “force” trades, or to try to reduce the cash balance to zero. When you see cash earn a short-term return of 2% sitting in an account, it is frustrating to know that you could invest it, minimally, in some preferred shares that yield 6.5%, but what inevitably happens is that when you want to utilize this cash, you will take a capital loss selling your preferred shares.

I think a lot of retail investors out there are chasing yield and are shying away from non-income bearing equity. You will continue to see inflows in bond and income funds, while equity will be shunned. This is something I will be eyeing a little more closely in terms of taking advantage of the matter.

The one huge advantage of cash is that it retains its principal value and is completely liquid to do whatever you want with it when the opportunity arises. Right now I am just not finding much in the way of opportunity, and hence, I wait patiently and enjoy the Canadian summer, as short as it is. This makes for boring writing, but boring is better than the alternative – permanent loss of capital.

Choosing the right credit card will save some money

For personal expenditures, some shopping around for a credit card that is aligned with ones’ spending profile will result in some savings. It will not be a life-changing amount, but it will be a perk. Some people like to collect airline miles and some like to collect points in their favourite retailers. As long as you cash in the rewards in a timely fashion, it will typically result in a 1-2% payback compared to the amount of money you spent on the card. In other words if you spend $10,000 a year on a credit card, typically you should be receiving something worth $100-200 had you paid for it in cash.

In light of the fact that credit card processors generally charge merchants over 2% for the privilege of having people use credit cards, they are still profiting, but the price you pay at retail inevitably reflects this premium. Merchants and people are essentially locked into using credit cards given that there is currently no differential payment (i.e. reduced prices for cash purchasers). You have to choose carefully in order to claim back the implied increase costs at retail. If you are not using a credit card that has some sort of “rewards” feature, then you are typically missing on a slight reduction in expenses.

Currently MBNA is offering a credit card that gives you 3% cash back in groceries and gasoline (5% for the first 6 months), and 1% on everything else. They pay it in $50 increments when you have accumulated the necessary credit. I have found this card quite beneficial to my own spending profile, which tends to be concentrated with the gas and grocery types of expenditures. The couple hundred dollars a year savings is certainly better than choosing a method of payment that does not give you a small kickback.

What will be interesting to see is if merchants start offering 2% discounts for cash purchases. The Government of Canada recently enabled this ability for merchants in their Code of Conduct that was adopted earlier this year. Item 5 is the most relevant.

Canadian Tire is the only major retailer that I know of that has some form of this – they give 1% Canadian Tire money for cash purchases. One wonders if other retailers will give point-of-sale discounts for cash purchases.