The CPP Investment Board announced it is buying a 10% stake in the operations of Highway 407 in Ontario – which is a toll freeway that is the outer loop of Metropolitan Ontario, a suburban route serving roughly Brampton to Markham.
The 10% stake is costing the CPP CAD$894 million. The CPP will also be acquiring another 30% stake by virtue of taking over Intoll, an Australian company, for roughly CAD$3.3 billion.
Is Highway 407 worth $9 billion total?
What is interesting is that the organization must report to SEDAR. Looking at their 2009 annual financial report, the 407 Highway has a debt of $4.8 billion, cash and equivalents (restricted or free) of $670 million, and equity of negative $1.08 billion. Not a stellar balance sheet, although the bonds themselves have a very long maturity profile and averaging about 5.7% interest.
On the income side, you have $560 million in revenues, and $116 million in operating expenses, leaving a yearly operating surplus of $444 million. Interest expense is another $275 million. Ignoring the other line items (depreciation, amortization and other capital expenses, plus taxes), you are left with an annual surplus of about $170 million.
Not that I like to criticize billion-dollar fund managers like the CPP Investment Board, but they obviously have something more strategic in mind if they are going to be spending this much money for a large minority equity stake at a price that appears to be 50 times present cash flows. There are a few mitigating factors, however.
The first is that Metropolitan Toronto is likely to grow, and with that is likely an increase in the suburb population – thus, traffic should increase. An increase in traffic also means the ability to increase tolls, which the organization does not need political authority to perform. The other deals with inflation-proofing: a toll highway is relatively insensitive to inflationary increases since you have little competition.
On the opposite side, if oil prices increase dramatically, or commuting takes a different shape, toll highways may not be a good business to be in.
Finally, there is political risk involved – if the CPP was able to take over a majority of the 407 operations (they are close with 40% currently), there will be a lot of pressure by the Ontario government to be able to lobby the federal government to recapture the rights to the highway. Although the CPP is an independent entity created by the federal government, one wonders how much political influence there would be.
In any event, the 407 Highway reverts back to the Ontario government after the 99 year lease expires. Although this lasts until 2098 (88 years from now) and I likely won’t be alive to see the end, there is a finite lifespan to this company.
The CPP is a very powerful player domestically with its $130 billion in assets – just over the scale of the Ontario Teacher’s Pension Board, which controls $96.4 billion in assets.
Is the CPP blowing this much money on a toll highway worth it? I think they overpaid, but they are probably just as desperate for yield as most investors are currently. This is possibly their best candidate to deploy $900M in cash, which is a telling statement on the entire marketplace.
