Why are so many Canadian finance writers anonymous?

I have an inherent distrust of writers on the internet that choose to remain anonymous. Quoting James Hymas, who shares my sentiment on the issue:

I consider it highly important in this wonderful world of looney-tunes in which we live that somebody making a claim get hurt – either directly in the pocketbook, or (as in the case of academics) in reputation – if they make a mistake.

This is an important principle of accountability. People that are unable to attach their own true identities with their opinions should be viewed with much skepticism.

The people that I have linked to the sidebar of this site are people that have their real names associated with them. I have found so few people that are willing to stick their necks out with their real name that it is rather disappointing.

Brokerage firms in Canada – Interactive Brokers Review

The choice of brokerage firm for individuals is not that relevant of a decision unless if you are a very active trader (and hence want to reduce your commissions or want fancy charting packages to give you a better read of your tea leaves). Ultimately, most brokerages provide the same core services, with some nuances to distinguish them.

I personally use two brokerages: Interactive Brokers and Questrade. In the past I also used BMO Investorline for my RRSP, but eventually migrated that to Questrade strictly on the basis of transaction costs.

Interactive Brokers

I have used Interactive Brokers since they were allowed to open in Canada in 2002. They are the best brokerage firm available to retail investors, bar none. They have automated practically every aspect of the service they deliver. You can also trade any electronically-traded product on the planet for an extremely low commission – if you make liquidity-providing trades (i.e. you don’t buy at the ask or sell at the bid) you can trade Canadian stocks at roughly 50 cents for 100 shares, and US stocks for roughly 30 cents per 100 shares. They have four “killer features” which I consider significant in my decision to stick with them:

a. You can trade nearly any financial product on the planet through their system, in any currency, and it is all seamlessly integrated. The only product which they do not trade for some strange reason are TSX-traded corporate debentures. Once you enter in your trade, they have an automated executed system which will route your order to the best available location. They support order types of any imaginable variety – including “conditional” orders and time-based orders. Their trading software, TWS, is very, very powerful.

Just note that while you can trade securities in far-off exchanges (e.g. out in Asia or Europe) doesn’t mean you should be!

b. Currency exchange. I am kind of amused at discussion forums asking where you can get the best rates to converting currency – most brokerages charge a 2% spread. With Interactive Brokers, the spread is the market, which is usually around 0.0001 for the CAD-USD pair. For people that do cross-currency transactions, this amounts to substantial cost savings.

c. Security. Once your account gets above a particular balance, IB will mail you a digital device in the mail, which is required to authenticate your login whenever you try to access your account. This is an ironclad way of security, even if somebody compromises your username and password, they still cannot compromise your account until they have the physical device. I generally feel that my money in Interactive Brokers is absolutely secure. Also, they are publicly traded, so you could judge whether they will be going into a financial meltdown (like E-Trade did) – but they are managed quite conservatively and survived 2008 very well.

d. Very inexpensive margin rates. For those that want to borrow money, you can do so at rates that are nearly impossible to get elsewhere. For example, right now you can borrow Canadian dollars at 1.768%. If you borrow more than $120,000, your rate is 1.268%. If you borrow more than $1,100,000, your rate is 0.768%. These are variable with the bank rate, so after July, this will likely increase. Credit available with Interactive Brokers is such that if you intend on borrowing money, it becomes a very simple procedure to dump securities into Interactive Brokers and withdraw the cash, which creates a self-secured tax-deductible loan vehicle.

Contrast this with the purchase of real estate, and getting an HELOC – the HELOC will have a higher rate, guaranteed.

The only trick with using margin, however, is making sure that the collateral (the assets backing up the loan) don’t lose value!

There is no point in borrowing money elsewhere when Interactive Brokers makes it so cheap. It brings up the real possibility of leveraging up in various fixed income securities and doing what every other bank on the planet is doing – which is made possible by Interactive Brokers – again, just make sure the assets you invest in don’t lose value.

The disadvantages of Interactive Brokers, however, are significant for most financially unsophisticated individuals – you have to know exactly what you are doing, otherwise you will likely make an errant trade and lose money. The TWS is not an easy-to-learn piece of software and nobody is going to be there to hold your hand, although there is ample documentation to read if you wish to self-educate. Other disadvantages is they do not do RRSPs or TFSAs (or anything else registered) – it takes them too much paperwork and compliance costs so they will not offer them. They do not offer TSX-traded debentures, which is something readers of this site will know that I have dabbled with. Finally, they do have ‘inactivity’ fees, where you will be charged a minimum of $10 a month minus the amount of commissions that month. So if you only rack up $3 of commissions for the month, they will dock you another $7. This is a minor amount, but for people with small accounts, Interactive Brokers is definitely not for them.

Customer support is done through a ticket creation system – one of their reps will look at it and give an appropriate response. It is rare that support will be needed, but all of the times I’ve had to send an inquiry, the response time was very prompt. For people that like talking on the phone for support, however, I doubt they will find Interactive Brokers adequate at all – they don’t hold the hands of their customers.

Getting money in and out of the account is easily performed through EFT. For larger quantities of money, they also support wire transfers.

In summary, Interactive Brokers is a very powerful brokerage – If Interactive Brokers offered RSP/TFSA accounts and offered TSX-traded debentures, I would be using them for everything. I would not recommend them for everybody, however.

I did this review without remuneration.

Apple vs. Microsoft – Stock valuation

Apple’s market capitalization is very close to Microsoft’s – $214 billion vs. $256 billion.

So if Apple’s stock goes up another 19.5% (from $235.97 to $282.03/share) they will be caught up. The amount of net cash both companies have on their balance sheets are similar. On the income side, Apple has $9.4 billion in net income for the past 4 quarters, while Microsoft has $16.3 billion.

The question of the day is the following: If you managed to find $256 billion in spare change behind the couch and were forced to buy Microsoft or Apple (and just one; no diversification allowed!), which would you buy?

My gut instinct (rather than any rigorous financial analysis – of which I haven’t bothered to perform) suggests that while I’d rather pick Apple over Vancouver real estate, Apple is only second to Amazon in terms of hype-driven valuation.

Of note right now is that Cisco and Intel combined trade at around $272 billion.

Canadian Fiscal Monitor January 2010

This is about nine days late, but the Ministry of Finance released the fiscal results for the 10 months ended January 2010.

Of particular note is a massive increase in corporate income tax collections – up a whopping 74% for the month of January 2010, from January 2009. Although month-to-month results will be quite volatile in this category, for the 10 months from April 2008 to January 2009 and April 2009 to January 2010, corporate tax collections are still down 23%. This will inevitably be better in the 2010-2011 fiscal year.

The spending side of the ledger continues to be very high, with 12% growth for the 10 months to date.

Garth Turner on Variable/Fixed mortgages – bad advice

On Garth Turner’s “Bingo” post on March 29, 2010, he states:

But the big question I was asked today: what should you do about your mortgage?

The bankers will be on the phone to you soon ‘suggesting’ you lock in, ‘for your own protection.’ Have none of it, if you are in a cheap VRM. We know why the lenders are saying that, since they count on scores of people now rushing in to voluntarily increase their payments. Once again, they play the emotional card, consistently suggesting actions counter to the best interests of Canadians.

A prime-minus VRM is a gift. Keep it. The Bank of Canada rate would have to soar by more than 200 basis points (2%) by Christmas for you even to consider locking in. And even then you would be saving money staying variable. In fact, the typical prime minus one half borrower would be better off staying put until the prime mushroomed almost 4% above current levels. You’d still be paying less a month.

And a prime rate of 6.25% is not going to happen for two, three or perhaps four years. Any sooner and you could mop up the economy with a Swiffer.

Right now, a 5-year variable rate mortgage is prime minus 0.5%, and if you shop around, the 5-year fixed rate is 3.79%.

Prime is currently 2.25%, and should rise to 3.50% by the end of the year. Markets currently suggest the prime rate will be 4.75-5.00% at the end of 2011.

Thus, a variable rate mortgage, locked at prime minus 0.5%, should have a higher rate than a fixed rate mortgage sometime in the second half of 2011.

If prime stayed at 4.25% for the rest of the 5-year term, then a variable rate mortgage is still a cheaper option. However, the differential between the two is close enough that for most everyday people, I would still suggest a 5-year fixed rate if you can get 3.79% for it. It is highly likely over the 5-year period you will outperform the variable option, especially if the yield curve starts to invert (which will happen if the economic recovery runs out of steam).

The crystal ball becomes considerably more fuzzy if you use a 4.39% 5-year fixed rate (which is currently what is ING Direct’s posted rate). If rate increases in 2012-2014 moderate, then taking the variable rate option will be a winner. However, this is exceedingly difficult to predict.

Either way, the lack of ultra-cheap credit will have the effect of slowing down demand in the housing market. Whether that will translate into lower prices remains to be seen. Personally, I have long since thought the housing market was irrational beyond belief, but have come to accept it could be that way for longer than my lifespan.

Ultimately, the only time that housing will become “cheap” in Vancouver is likely when people don’t want to buy houses when mortgages are so expensive that GICs start to become an attractive investment option. Just imagine living back in 1982 when you had a choice of buying some Vancouver special for $150,000 on an 18% 5-year fixed-rate mortgage or renting and putting your would-be down payment in a GIC earning 15% and not having to worry about making those $27k/year interest payments… in situations like that, the cost of capital becomes so high that renting becomes a much more viable alternative.

If we ever see those days again, where buying a house is very difficult because you have such more financially attractive (and accessible) options elsewhere, I would suspect valuations are ripe for buying. We are a long way away from this, even if mortgage credit is given out at 5%.