For risk-takers only: Priszm Income Fund

The most troubled (but not formally bankrupt… yet!) company trading on the TSX is the Priszm Income Fund (TSX: QSR.UN), which operates fast food franchises. The fund owns 60% of a limited partnership that operates 432 restaurants (KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut) across seven Canadian provinces. The other 40% is owned by a corporation controlled by the fund manager.

Unfortunately for the fund, they have substantial balance sheet issues. As of September 5, 2010, they have a $66 million loan that is secured by substantively all assets of the company, and this loan is due at December 31, 2010 (which was not paid). The company had $13.4 million in cash in early September, and cash through operations in the first 9 months of 2010 generated approximately $3.4 million. It should be noted the business is seasonal, with most of the revenues obtained in the third quarter (summer) season.

The company is trying to liquidate over half (232) of their restaurants, all located in BC and Ontario, for $46 million (link) but this deal has not closed yet. Even then, the company is not quite out of the woods in terms of their balance sheet situation.

Notably, the company has $30 million in unsecured convertible debentures outstanding that are due on June 30, 2012. The company has not paid interest on them at the end of December 31, 2010.

The debentures are trading at around 20 cents on the dollar, and have tanked over the past month as the solvency issue became very apparent:

This is a lesson for debenture investors that market valuations can be considerably divergent from the underlying truth – as early as the beginning of December, debentures were worth about 70 cents on the dollar – any investors at that point would have received a 70% haircut in valuation AND also the ignominy of paying the sellers 5 months of accrued interest!

It is also not quite clear even if the fund can realize $46 million in value out of the 232 franchises whether they will be able to avoid bankruptcy – they still have a considerable amount payable after this liquidation. Such a liquidation would occur on January 15, 2011 if approved by the buyer after they do their due diligence.

That said, it makes one wonder whether there is still value in the convertible debentures of Priszm. They are very cheap, but very cheap for a reason – even if the company can liquidate their franchises for an acceptable price, there is a stack of other payables that are due, possibly before or possibly jointly with unsecured debenture holders. Study up on your knowledge of the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act! Suffice to say, this one would be for extreme risk-takers only.

Disclosure – No positions.

Bank of Canada 2011 Review

In 2011, the Bank of Canada will have eight announcement dates for the short term interest rate target:

January 18
March 1
April 12
May 31
July 19
September 7
October 25
December 6

Currently, the BAX Futures have the following quotations:

Month / Strike Bid Price Ask Price Settl. Price Net Change Vol.
+ 11 JA 0.000 0.000 98.590 0.015 0
+ 11 FE 0.000 0.000 98.555 0.015 0
+ 11 MR 98.540 98.545 98.540 0.005 8486
+ 11 JN 98.340 98.350 98.340 0.010 14721
+ 11 SE 98.160 98.170 98.160 0.010 15777
+ 11 DE 98.000 98.010 98.000 0.000 14316
+ 12 MR 97.850 97.870 97.850 0.010 6577
+ 12 JN 97.730 97.750 97.730 0.010 2365
+ 12 SE 97.620 97.630 97.610 0.030 692
+ 12 DE 97.440 97.510 97.460 0.030 0

The markets are inferring there is a chance the Bank of Canada will raise rates by 0.25% during the March 1 meeting, and if not by then, then a good chance on April 12.  Three month corporate paper is currently yielding 1.18% (98.82 on BAX).  Clearly, the market is pricing in inflationary fears as opposed to factoring in economic or currency differentials, relative to the USA.  For people that have floating rate mortgages or margin loans, your cost for these loans is likely to increase slightly throughout 2011.

What to do with RRSP and TFSA contributions

I notice Larry Macdonald is tackling the age-old question of where to put cash into work. This would be cash that is earmarked for an RRSP and/or TFSA contribution.

The sensible answer is that you don’t have to contribute and instead concentrate on debt reduction. Many people have a mortgage accruing interest at 4%, and assuming your marginal tax rate is 30%, it would amount to an equivalent pre-tax investment at 5.7%, not bad on what amounts to a risk-free return.

If you are fortunate enough to have no debts to pay off, then the question becomes more difficult to answer.

I would agree with the sentiment that the marketplace feels “frothy”, albeit equities are likely poised for further gains early this year.

The worst decision somebody can make is to contribute cash and put it immediately to work in an investment without regard to the valuation of the investment. For example, dumping the money into an ETF (which is what most casual investors will do) is unlikely to produce a market-beating return unless you can explicitly justify why the ETF components are undervalued.

This question is amplified for myself, mainly because I have been on a liquidation spree at the beginning of this year. It hurts to see cash earning 2%, but it would hurt even more to see that cash earn -10% on a snap decision investment. All I can do at present is pile stocks up in my research queue, and be patient for valuations to correct themselves or to wait for a volatility shock in the marketplace.

It is for this reason, high levels of cash, that I am not terribly optimistic about my 2011 performance.

Davis and Henderson fooling all sorts of investors

The award for the “most botched up trust conversion of the year” would have to go to none other than Davis + Henderson. This is ironic since they are a business service company that would presumably include assistance with such things as income trust conversions.

Previously their ticker symbol was DHF.UN (on Toronto), but they changed their ticker to “DH.TO” upon conversion.

An additional mixup is that DHF.TO traded 104,000 shares on January 4, 2011 under the wrong ticker symbol.

It is most likely that somebody botched up the paperwork because most electronic systems still have a listing for “DHF.TO”, which is not the proper symbol and is not trading. The correct symbol, “DH.TO“, is listed on the TSX but has had negligible volume because almost everybody’s electronic systems (including Interactive Brokers!) have the improper DHF.TO ticker.

Disclosure: I currently have a position in Davis + Henderson.

Contrarian indications – Energy

I noticed the following was the headline on the Drudge Report, who is amazingly good at fueling public sentiment on various issues on his simple, yet amazingly addictive page of links:

Although a single headline does not make markets move, it is something to be cautious about. The price of gasoline has not reached the mania level that it did back in 2008; however, it may reach that again in 2011.

I noticed while reading the latest financial pornography, mainly the five or so Canadian-related websites that attempt to sell advertising that they are having a “top four” stock contest. While these are purely for fun and have no bearing on reality unless if people invest real money in their convictions, I do notice that oil-related companies are starting to become about as prevalent as investing than gold-related companies.

Although in the long run I believe that the easy oil is gone, oil is still a cyclical market and is still bound by the economic constraints of how the marketplace works – with high capital costs, there are times where each individual company would see it rational to produce product above marginal cost but below fully burdened costs, leading to a situation where you have the underlying commodity trading below the fully burdened cost.

You see this happening today in the North American natural gas marketplace.

The contrarian pick would be to long natural gas and short oil, but this seems too obvious and too soon. One of the most dangerous aspects of investing is knowing when to exit the party, and an early departure to the party at this point will likely lead to plenty of gains being abandoned in the name of safety. When everybody runs for the exits, it will not be pretty.

However, if you’ve survived with your capital, you will be sitting pretty to pick up the capital-hungry entities that will be left standing and will receive a good risk/reward ratio for your patience.