The Bank of Canada continues to hold its short term target rate steady at 1%. The salient quotation:
While underlying inflation is subdued, a number of temporary factors will boost total CPI inflation to around 3 per cent in the second quarter of 2011 before total CPI inflation converges to the 2 per cent target by the middle of 2012. This short-term volatility reflects the impact of recent sharp increases in energy prices and the ongoing boost from changes in provincial indirect taxes. Core inflation has fallen further in recent months, in part due to temporary factors. It is expected to rise gradually to 2 per cent by the middle of 2012 as excess supply in the economy is slowly absorbed, labour compensation growth stays modest, productivity recovers and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
The persistent strength of the Canadian dollar could create even greater headwinds for the Canadian economy, putting additional downward pressure on inflation through weaker-than-expected net exports and larger declines in import prices.
My own metric, the spread between the short term rate and the 10-year government bond, is at a 2.48% spread as of present. If this goes higher then the Bank of Canada might consider raising rates. BAX futures still imply a rate increase is on the horizon before year’s end. 3-month corporate paper is yielding 1.18%.