I earlier stated that posted rates are irrelevant, but the change in them is somewhat more relevant. The change in mortgage rates, however, are dictated by the Canadian government bond market.
As you can see, the 5-year government bond yield is at a high for the year – at 3.06%, it has not been this high since October 2008.
Today some of the major banks increased their posted rates to 6.1% from 5.85%. The best market rate you can receive today on a 5-year fixed mortgage, without going through too much hassle, is around 4.25%. This will likely go up to 4.5% soon.
Over the past 5 years, the peak for the 5-year benchmark government bond yield was 4.72% in the week of June 13, 2007. The posted bank rate then was around 7.3%, and a typical market rate on 5-year fixed rates would have been around 5.8%.
As government bond yields continue to increase, mortgage rates will also follow.