Marijuana stocks

Why anybody continues to invest in this sector is beyond me. But for whatever reason, over the past 7 trading days, Canopy Growth has skyrocketed – yes, this is over a 50% surge up:

I’m not short the stock, but those that are are obviously hurting. It is a heavily shorted stock, with about 40 million shares short on the US side and 11 million on the Canadian side, with a cost of borrow of around 25% (assuming you can actually get shares to borrow).

While I’m not the type to gamble on these stocks, my gut instinct says that it might Tilray these short sellers before crashing again. In March 2019, they reported CAD$4.5 billion in cash and marketable securities on the balance sheet, and at the end of December 2019, it was about C$2.3 billion, an impressive cash burn trajectory. While Constellation Brands did exercise C$245 million in warrants on May 1st, I’m sure Canopy would love another opportunity to raise cash again!

I’m guessing all of these Robinhood and Wealthsimple investors have been happily buying shares. Who knows, they might have the last high!

Costs and inflation

The post-COVID-19 world is going to incur a material extra cost to doing street level business, at least if they want to do things “by the book”, which includes abiding by yet another layer of regulatory burden from health and worker’s compensation board agencies, lest the authorities pull your business license. Individuals can flaunt the unwritten laws of social distancing with little consequence, but businesses have much more to risk if they do not toe the line.

Getting plexiglass installed, and distributing masks and faceshields to employees, isn’t free. The labour to disinfect everything and to maintain it, isn’t free. Having your square footage utilization ratio decrease by a factor of 2 or 2.5, most definitely is not free, especially in urban centres where retail leasing prices are (or were) sky-high.

Good example of an article: Shops are reopening after COVID-19, and some are adding a new line to your bill to pay for it.

Psychologically speaking, a surcharge is ill-advised in competitive businesses. Customers will feel like they’re getting ripped off. Smarter businesses will embed it into the sticker price.

But the underlying point is that within businesses that have to deal with other human beings close and up-front, fixed and variable costs are going to increase. This is a cost burden that all such businesses will have to face, so it will give a natural competitive advantage to those that don’t have to put up with such costs, or those that can amortize fixed costs over a wider base.

These costs are not going to materially add value to the customer, but because they will be spread amongst all in-person business participants, the customer will have to pay for them.

If it isn’t obvious already, businesses that do not have much in the way of a physical presence will gain one more competitive advantage, relative to those businesses that serve customers in-person.

Minor site administration note – Comments

A few weeks ago, in response to a comment that the “email when there are new comments” function on my previous system was not working at all, I replaced the comments engine with this WP Discuz plugin, which appears to have better functionality in addition to actually supporting the feature.

I’m happy to report this system appears to be working well.

On a recent post, somebody had posted a couple links in the comments, and ordinarily posts with two or more links would go into the moderation queue (a ton of spam contains multiple links per comment). I’ve now raised this limit to 3 links or more before I have to manually moderate comments.

Cash parking – why bother?

A year ago, if you had spare cash in the brokerage account, it made sense to dump it into a cash-parking ETF such as (TSX: PSA) and get your 200 basis points of yield while you waited to make a decision on your capital.

You can see the effect of the decrease in interest rates from the Bank of Canada:

Now cash in this instrument yields 65 basis points, minus a 15 basis point MER, leaving a net of 0.50%. Might as well keep it in zero yielding cash instead of bothering with the hassle.

I found it amazing to know that despite the decrease in interest rates to nearly nothing, that PSA’s assets under management is still $2.2 billion! The managers are being paid $3.3 million to administer a savings account.

I note that one of their competitors, (TSX: HSAV) had to decrease its management expense ratio from 18bps to 8bps. Its gross yield pre-MER is 75bps on a $313 million net asset value.

Might as well keep it in liquid cash at this point. Who knows if the market maker will decide to have a heart attack and you can only liquidate with a 25 cent spread at the worst moment?

Frustrating week to date

The quarter-to-date number is astonishingly high, but quite bluntly these are the times like 2009 where you have to reach for the sky.

This week was frustrating because of the velocity of how the market rocketed up.

I’ve had this informal heuristic where my selling reallocation gets conducted when the overall markets are in a buying mood, and does my buying reallocation when the markets are in a selling mood.

This works great until you stop getting down days, where instead you build up excess cash in the portfolio. There is a form of portfolio misallocation going on right now, and it is in the form of zero-yielding cash.

Going from negative 12% cash to positive 12% cash (basically taking advantage of companies that were pounded to death in early April and cashing them out for some quick gains for more durable picks) and then having everything else rocket up still means you’re participating in the market, but other than getting a 500 share fill on a company some of you may have heard of, it’s been pretty tough going – my limit orders haven’t been getting hit.

The markets, for the most part, “feel” like the people that have cashed out their portfolios in March/April are trying to get back in.

I do have notional exposure to the ever-increasingly concentrated S&P 500 but it is mild (the percentage exposure has gone down, and this was fortunately aided by the fact that the rest of the portfolio itself has gone up).

The only future losing investment I can see at this time is long-duration fixed income. Even rate-reset preferred shares, which should be relative underperformers, will be okay for the most cautious investors compared to sticking money in A-AA-AAA fixed income.

The trick here is to not view the cash in your portfolio as (too much of) a liability (yes, my CPA hat is screaming at me that cash is in the asset column, I think the reader knows what I am getting at here). Instead of saying “damn it, I’m just going to hit the ask”, waiting for a day when Trump says something that causes the market to go down a couple percent, or some other equivalent, and then choosing to purchase when the nervous nellies return thinking there will be a second rebound of COVID-19. The latter isn’t happening – the surprise is going to be how quickly COVID-19 will disappear, except in the eyes of the media, and the public knows it.

The question is when the month-long euphoria of re-opening (which will cause a spending boom) ends, what will happen to employment, capital investment, and so forth. There are a lot of questions about the potential re-domestication (I don’t know what else to call this) of certain components of the US economy. Regulatory structures do need to change to give companies incentives to on-shoring manufacturing that has long since been outsourced (mostly to China). In Canada, the only industries that matter in the lens of the current government are the ones encompassing the metropolitan Toronto and Montreal areas, with Atlantic Canada (you can literally look at the 2019 election results map and look for the ‘red’ areas to determine where the government privilege will go), so apply that information strategically in Canadian investment decisions. As in, Bombardier unsecured debt is trading at around 60 cents on the dollar.