I know this was a little cryptic in “The big picture“, but one of my takeaways was:
* What we have known as “safety” is no longer going to be as such
It was partly intentional.
As I am writing this, gold, silver and platinum futures are down about 10% in really volatile trading.
This is despite spot WTI being up a few bucks – normally when energy goes up, the cost to refine metals goes up with it (not to mention all the industrial chemicals going through the Strait of Hormuz).
What’s going on?
Liquidity. The safe haven is being cashed out. The Persian Gulf needs money. What can be liquidated? Since you can’t get crude oil out of the Persian Gulf anymore, you get the next best thing out of there – precious metals.
The next safe asset on the liquidity list? Government debt.
You guys all need to sleep.
There were so many “experts” reporting doom before 7am EST, it’s hilarious to read it right now.
This is not your personal war, chill.
Not my personal war but it becomes personal when the ripple effects of QE5 hits the streets!
Some of the fear is real. For instance, escalation of civilian infrastructure would cut both ways, the destruction of desalinization plants would be catastrophic.
The people playing the commodity futures markets are getting whipsawed like crazy.
Sasha, you are a smart guy, but I think you are too obsessed with these current events.
It’s wise to prepare for the worst, but it’s not wise to be so obsessed and deprive yourself of sleep.
It is bad for your health.
And having a good health and clear mind is a part being prepared, after all.
I completely agree that getting proper amounts (and quality) of sleep is essential for good health.
There is a cliche in finance which is “you either eat well or sleep well but not both” and believe me, I sleep well!
Normally I don’t care much about current events.
However, this one has far too much interference capability with the whole global financial system. Whether it does or does not resolve that way is a matter of opinion. It may come to pass. But the severity danger here is high.
Unfortunately, like it or not, somebody that isn’t directionally correct on this one will be investing with an arm tied behind their back.
Ask yourself what happens if GoC5yr trades at 350, 400, 450bps in a couple months? Nothing escapes.
Sorry, it’ Sacha, of course. 🙂
Now you got me curious. What happens if GoC5ye hit 450bps?
“Since you can’t get crude oil out of the Persian Gulf anymore, you get the next best thing out of there – precious metals.”
This could be why we have a bid for crypto too. Sell physical gold or silver in the middle east for bitcoin/ethereum/etc and cash the crypto out somewhere else – all outside the formal financial system.