Category: Equity

Petrobakken trying to find the cash

On December 13, 2011, Petrobakken (TSX: PBN) released more information with respect to their 2012 plans and numbers.

The two salient snippets are as follows:

We are also pleased to announce our initial capital plan for 2012, which allow us to build on our 2011 operational success. We anticipate capital development expenditures of approximately $700 million, primarily focused on horizontal drilling and completions, predominantly in the Bakken and Cardium light oil plays. We expect that this drilling-focused activity will generate a 2012 exit production rate of between 50,000 and 54,000 boepd. Our estimated year-over-year average production growth will exceed 15%, on an absolute and per-share basis. We expect this initial 2012 program to be executed entirely from funds from operations, with surplus cash flow available to fund dividends and debt repayment.

For 2012 we estimate that our corporate base decline rate will be in the range of 30-35%. In 2010, our base production declined approximately 40%, while the 2011 base decline rate is now forecast at approximately 35%. We have been encouraged by the results of our recently completed wells, and we are also beginning to see the benefit of the continued maturation of our producing assets with a significant proportion of our production now coming from older, shallower decline, horizontal wells.

…

As part of our ongoing balance sheet management, and to reward continuing support from existing shareholders, we are pleased to announce the implementation of a DRIP. The DRIP provides eligible holders of common shares resident in Canada the opportunity to reinvest their monthly cash dividends in PetroBakken shares at a 5% discount to the then current market prices. Petrobank (59% shareholder of the Company) has indicated an intention to participate in the DRIP with respect to 50% of their PetroBakken shares, which will amount to $53 million in additional liquidity to the Company on an annual basis. Subject to the receipt of approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange, the DRIP will be implemented for the January 2012 dividend, which is payable in mid-February 2012. Additional information regarding the DRIP can be found below.

The company is planning on spending $700M in capex in 2012, which is a decrease from projected 2011 capex numbers of $900M. The capital budget for 2012 will be slightly below their operating cash flow for the year, assuming current oil prices remain steady (a 12-month extrapolation of 2011 figures for the first nine months is $650M, noting that WTIC prices were lower then than they are now).

It still leaves one wondering when the company is actually going to generate significant amounts of cash in excess of capital expenditures – when you add the $180M of dividends projected in 2012 (minus the ~$53M that Petrobank will re-invest for Petrobakken equity), it does not leave much for them to pay off their February 2013 debenture, which holders have a one-day put option to redeem (and given the small coupon and the credit profile of the company, they most certainly will unless if there is a sweetener given to them in the interim).

The DRIP decision in itself is rather interesting – it effectively starves half the cash flow that Petrobank will receive from Petrobakken in exchange for further equity. Since Petrobank owns 59% of Petrobakken, it will result in Petrobank foregoing $53M/year in dividends in exchange for further equity. Assuming a $13/share price for Petrobakken, this will mean Petrobakken will issue 4.3M shares to Petrobank over 2012 – a cost of capital of 7.8% for Petrobakken, assuming the dividend is not cut. This is expensive capital for the company.

The company has hedged a significant amount of oil (20,000 boepd, about 40% of its expected production) with existing high prices which I think is a smart decision. Still, they are extremely leveraged and their only salvation is continued high oil prices. If there is any significant contraction in the price of oil, they will be in clear financial difficulty, especially when it comes to negotiating with the $750M debenture that is effectively due in February of 2013.

Dangers of buying callable debentures above par value

Rogers Sugar (TSX: RSI) announced at the end of trading they had a bought offering of debentures, and calling in their existing series of debentures (TSX: RSI.DB.B) effective around December 19, 2011.

Holders of RSI.DB.B will be receiving a nasty shock tomorrow because of this call announcement – they were trading around 104 before this happened, but now the debentures will only be redeemed for 100. Any recent buyers of the debentures will take a bit of a loss. The debentures were trading slightly above par because of the conversion feature embedded within them – they are convertible at $5.10 per share and with the market price recently at $5.14, it is possible there may be further conversions. The debentures will trade at 100 plus the embedded value of a call option that expires on December 19, 2011.

The deal itself is very good for Rogers Sugar – they have extended the term structure of their debentures to April 2017 and December 2018, done so at a slightly lower coupon rate, and an increased conversion price ($6.50 and $7.20 per share, respectively). Overall, Rogers Sugar has performed excellent in my portfolio and I continue to hold a position in the equity, albeit the equity is in my fair value range. Although the investment has been about as exciting as watching paint dry, they have performed solidly.

Holloway Lodging REIT

Forgive my sarcasm, but my favourite nearly insolvent REIT, Holloway Lodging REIT (TSX: HLR.UN) announced their latest quarterly results. They weren’t that bad relative to the previous year, but the company has a huge debt anchor around its throat while it is being asked to swim across the Pacific Ocean.

More specifically, in order to pay off an earlier debenture, the company through a related entity, borrowed money at double-digit rates of interest and continues to have about $12M outstanding at this time through that loan. There is another debenture maturing in less than 8 months worth approximately $50M face value that they admitted they won’t be able to pay off when it becomes due.

The likely scenario is that they will be doing a debt-for-equity swap. However, there is a game of “chicken” being played – there could also be a chance that the controlling shareholder would float another bridge loan to the company and pay off the debenture to avoid massive dilution – similar to what happened with the first debenture.

This is the only reason why I can think that the debenture has a bid at 50 cents on the dollar. Even with this debt anchor removed, the underlying operations are not all that profitable – most of the profit is being sucked off by the controlling shareholder through related entities.

Yellow divests a business

I don’t have enough time to fully write about it, but here are some low quality notes for Yellow Media (TSX: YLO).

Yellow Media announced they are divesting their LesPAC Inc. business unit for $72.5 million in cash. The company basically operated a craigslist-type pour les Quebecois, pardon my mauvais Français! The company generated $12.7M in revenues for the 2010 fiscal year, so on first glance, a sale at 5.71 times revenues seems good. It would probably be a more depressing figure how much they spent to build the service, so it wouldn’t surprise me in the least that with the disposition of that business there would be another chunk of goodwill and intangibles off the balance sheet if they did have to purchase some technology in order to build the site.

Now if they can just sell the rest of their business at 5.71 times revenues, then they won’t have much of a debt problem anymore. Equity holders will get $15/share and everybody will be happy. Don’t hold your breath.

That said, $72.5 million is not an inconsiderable chunk of change and increase the chances the company will be able to chip away at its credit facility due February 2013. Preferred shares C and D are trading a shade lower, yielding 38% at the bid, while debentures are trading a shade higher on reaction to this news at roughly 29 cents on the dollar. The market continues to be deeply skeptical on the ability of YLO to pay back its debt and obviously this depends on whether the “transformation to digital” will be a profitable one or not.

Petrobakken Q3-2011: Still burning cash

One anonymous bullish person on Petrobakken (TSX: PBN) posted the following comment upon the release of PBN’s third quarter report:

The only thing you can say about PBN’s results is: outstanding.

This was a big time turn-around from 2Q spring breakup.

They are already at 47,500 per day and expect to exit 2011 at over 49,000 per day (49k was their previous year end exit number, so this is a production beat and raise). BMO’s analyst was at 39k. How wrong he is.

Assuming a go-forward production rate of approximately 49,000 boepd (87% oil weighted), the estimated discretionary cash flow would be approximately $905 million in 2012, assuming US$90 WTI, foreign exchange of 0.975, AECO CDN$3.50 and a 5% differential. A $10 change in oil = $100MM change in cash flow.

Analysts are expecting this year’s $900MM capital program to be repeated next year… Management gave hints it might be much less (perhaps ~$500MM). This which would mean FCF could be $400MM or more. So much for their balance sheet problems.

Their covenants are easily being met.

Looks like the cross-over point when cash flow will meet spending needs + dividends will be sometime in 2012 (based on $90 oil and reasonable production growth).

Three wells have been drilled in the new plays and they aren’t saying much. That is a good sign.

@Kevin @Sacha – you still have time to reverse course. I would suggest it’s much better to focus on this deep value opportunity than Yellow Media or BAC. Poor souls.

I’m not sure whether we were reading the same quarterly report or not. Average bopde for the first 9 months of the fiscal year is down 8% from 2010 to 2011 (page 10); the emphasis on “estimated” or “current” production is relatively meaningless unless if such production can be sustained – and if so, at what capital cost? Reading the report, Q4’s capex is going to be yet again over operating cash flow.

Average WTIC in CDN$ was up 16% on average from 2010 to 2011, which is a boost to the company’s results – there is no doubt whatsoever that high oil prices will assist Petrobakken, along with any other crude production company. Despite the production drop, this price gain in WTIC increased the revenue intake. Indeed, crude price rises will be their only real way for salvation – if they experience drops in crude pricing, it will be financially very damaging below a certain point.

Now it could be the case that Israel does an air strike on Iran and crude oil spikes – getting lucky with Deus Ex Machina is one way of realizing investment gains.

Cash outflow (primarily through capital expenditures) was about $106M over operational cash flows – add another $45M in dividends out the door in the quarter means the company digs another $151M deeper into its bank facility – they will be forced to slow down capital expenditures as they are running up against their bank credit line and also have to face the issue with the put they sold on their US$750M debenture issue (February 2013). When the capital expenditure spigot stops – how quickly will that production fade? We’ll find out pretty soon.

No positions in PBN, nor will I be creating any.