Bank of Canada leaves rates at 1%

As predicted, the Bank of Canada leaves rates at 1%, citing:

The recovery in Canada is proceeding slightly faster than expected, and there is more evidence of the anticipated rebalancing of demand. While consumption growth remains strong, there are signs that household spending is moving more in line with the growth in household incomes. Business investment continues to expand rapidly as companies take advantage of stimulative financial conditions and respond to competitive imperatives. There is early evidence of a recovery in net exports, supported by stronger U.S. activity and global demand for commodities. However, the export sector continues to face considerable challenges from the cumulative effects of the persistent strength in the Canadian dollar and Canada’s poor relative productivity performance.

While global inflationary pressures are rising, inflation in Canada has been consistent with the Bank’s expectations. Underlying pressures affecting prices remain subdued, reflecting the considerable slack in the economy.

This language is similar to the previous release, and suggests that at the April 12th release that the Bank of Canada, barring any major events between now and then, will be keeping rates steady at 1% for that meeting.

BAX Futures are a shade higher, although it should be noted that the June future is at 98.545, implying a coin toss for a 0.25% rate hike at the May 31, 2011 announcement.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Projection

I am projecting that the Bank of Canada will leave the short term interest rate target at 1%. Their next policy rate announcement is on Tuesday.

BAX Futures for March are at 98.67, which suggest a low probability of a rate hike, but I stated before that I very much doubt the Bank of Canada will move until the 10-year benchmark yield is over 3.5% – with the geopolitical instability in North Africa, rates ended last Friday at 3.29%.

Especially with the Canadian currency at relative highs against the US dollar (which has a dampening effect on the export-driven Canadian economy) a rate hike seems unlikely at the moment, but the wording of the text may suggest that the next meeting may consider a hike if conditions warrant, beyond the already existing language.

Bank of Canada holds steady

The Bank of Canada holds the overnight target interest rate steady which resulted in a very mild decrease in the Canadian dollar as traders positioned themselves when reading the language in the statement.

Specifically:

Underlying pressures affecting prices remain subdued, reflecting the considerable slack in the Canadian economy. Core inflation is projected to edge gradually up to 2 per cent by the end of 2012, as excess supply in the economy is slowly absorbed. Inflation expectations remain well-anchored. Total CPI inflation is being boosted temporarily by the effects of provincial indirect taxes, but is expected to converge to the 2 per cent target by the end of 2012.

This is “fed speak” that is likely “We’re not going to do anything on our next meeting as we see how things unfold.”

BAX Futures have nudged slightly up in reaction to the statement:

Month / Strike Bid Price Ask Price Settl. Price Net Change Vol.
+ 11 FE 0.000 0.000 98.590 0.000 0
+ 11 MR 98.620 98.625 98.575 0.050 23240
+ 11 AL 0.000 0.000 98.520 0.000 0
+ 11 JN 98.380 98.390 98.350 0.040 29808
+ 11 SE 98.150 98.160 98.140 0.020 14591
+ 11 DE 97.940 97.950 97.940 0.000 13813
+ 12 MR 97.770 97.780 97.780 -0.010 6012
+ 12 JN 97.630 97.640 97.640 -0.010 1493
+ 12 SE 97.250 97.580 97.520 -0.010 814
+ 12 DE 97.350 97.410 97.370 -0.010 36

I still maintain that long-term rates maintain much more relevancy – 10 year benchmark bond rates are at 3.25%, and it is likely that in order for the Bank of Canada to raise short term rates that the long-bond will need to go higher. It is my guess that the BOC has a silent objective to keep a 2-2.5% yield spread between short term and 10-year rates.

Bank of Canada 2011 Review

In 2011, the Bank of Canada will have eight announcement dates for the short term interest rate target:

January 18
March 1
April 12
May 31
July 19
September 7
October 25
December 6

Currently, the BAX Futures have the following quotations:

Month / Strike Bid Price Ask Price Settl. Price Net Change Vol.
+ 11 JA 0.000 0.000 98.590 0.015 0
+ 11 FE 0.000 0.000 98.555 0.015 0
+ 11 MR 98.540 98.545 98.540 0.005 8486
+ 11 JN 98.340 98.350 98.340 0.010 14721
+ 11 SE 98.160 98.170 98.160 0.010 15777
+ 11 DE 98.000 98.010 98.000 0.000 14316
+ 12 MR 97.850 97.870 97.850 0.010 6577
+ 12 JN 97.730 97.750 97.730 0.010 2365
+ 12 SE 97.620 97.630 97.610 0.030 692
+ 12 DE 97.440 97.510 97.460 0.030 0

The markets are inferring there is a chance the Bank of Canada will raise rates by 0.25% during the March 1 meeting, and if not by then, then a good chance on April 12.  Three month corporate paper is currently yielding 1.18% (98.82 on BAX).  Clearly, the market is pricing in inflationary fears as opposed to factoring in economic or currency differentials, relative to the USA.  For people that have floating rate mortgages or margin loans, your cost for these loans is likely to increase slightly throughout 2011.

Short term Bank of Canada rate snapshot

BAX futures suggest that the overnight target rate will be held at 1% for the December 7, 2010 Bank of Canada meeting:

Month / Strike Bid Price Ask Price Settl. Price Net Change Vol.
+ 10 NO 0.000 0.000 98.690 0.000 0
+ 10 DE 98.710 98.715 98.710 0.000 4741
+ 11 JA 0.000 0.000 98.675 0.000 0
+ 11 MR 98.600 98.610 98.600 0.000 12558
+ 11 JN 98.460 98.470 98.460 0.000 15591
+ 11 SE 98.280 98.300 98.290 0.000 13157
+ 11 DE 98.140 98.150 98.140 0.010 7394
+ 12 MR 98.020 98.040 98.030 0.000 3483
+ 12 JN 97.930 97.970 97.950 0.010 274
+ 12 SE 97.850 97.930 97.910 0.010 108
+ 12 DE 97.780 97.830 97.830 0.010 7

The rates do suggest that by mid-year we might see another 0.5% increase in rates throughout 2011, but this is financially speculative noise peeking through the woodwork. 3-month corporate paper is yielding 1.17% at present, so there is not much of a divergence between existing rates and implied December 2010 rates.

In terms of long-term rates, Canadian 10-year bonds have crept up to 2.98% at the end of November 10th trading. While this is not anything significant in terms of the range over the past 12 months, it is up about a quarter point over the past month. The big scare for real estate gurus out there was likely in the early second quarter (April) when 10-year bond rates went to 3.7%. Still, this is nothing close to the past decade’s average of 4.3%, and the peak rate of roughly 5.96% back in the year 2001.

I am struggling to make what is a rather boring interest rate post interesting, so I will leave it here.