There is a phrase that was associated with Warren Buffet, and that was the investing concept of grabbing a cigar butt off the sidewalk and giving it one last puff before throwing it away.
Approximately US$0.33095042 per US$1.00 principal amount of Gold Notes issued and outstanding representing a redemption price of US$0.30 for each US$1.00 principal amount of the Gold Notes plus the Applicable Premium, as defined in the Gold Notes Indenture, of approximately US$0.03095042 per US$1.00 principal amount of Gold Notes. The aggregate amount of the cash payments on the Payment Date will be approximately US$21,139,458, of which US$19,162,500 will be applied to reduce the aggregate principal amount of the Gold Notes issued and outstanding and the balance represents the Applicable Premium.
This works out to a redemption call of $1.103 per $1 of notes, a relatively large premium considering I paid a penny above par for these notes in what felt like an eternity ago.
With the remaining US$44.7 million in notes, another $4.875 million gets amortized on April 30, 2020. However, because the amortization is linked to the sale of a fixed amount of gold, the residual value over a gold price of US$1,250 is going to be disproportionately high – at the current gold price of US$1,650 that’s going to be about a 22% coupon return (8.25% interest plus the gold redemption). It is virtually certain that these notes will be called off on April 30, 2021 at 104.13. These notes are first in line on GCM’s capital structure and are secured by the Segovia mining operation. So if you want to take one last puff at the cigarette, see if you can get some liquidity. Even if they shut down the mine for a month or two due to Covid-19, GCM has the capital to pay the notes down to their amortization maturity – October 2022. Even though the notes on their face mature on April 30, 2024, the company is required to redeem $4.875 million a quarter at par. If they choose to do that and not call off at April 30, 2021, then the residual notes will receive insanely ridiculous gold payments at present gold levels.
(Subsequent note: The future amortizations will be reduced by 30% to account for the early redemption, so the assumption in the above was incorrect… this makes the April 30, 2021 redemption to appear to be ‘possible’, but not ‘virtually certain’)
I already have a healthy position in these notes (less after the upcoming redemptions) but am deploying elsewhere. I am content to let my position ride until maturity or redemption.