Reviewing one of my year-end predictions

For my December 31, 2015 new year’s predictions, I said the following:

* Next US President: Donald Trump will be elected as the next president of the United States, by a considerable margin. This prediction is not an endorsement of him, but it is a reflection of my political analysis and my take on what is happening in the United States at present.

I’ve been telling people since September 2015 that Donald Trump would not only win the nomination, but the presidency of the United States. The general election result is not even going to be close – Trump will get at least 350 electoral votes.

7 thoughts on “Reviewing one of my year-end predictions”

  1. Would have been far more worth it at 15 cents than 40 cents, but still believe his rating is under-valued.

    Would you know if a venue that would take a significant bet at similar odds?

  2. I think you can get that type of odds at a typical offshore sportsbooks. Pinnaclesports offer the best odd (though it list the question as Hillary Clinton vs all others – giving you even better odd in case she gets indicted) – they are quite reputable.
    If you want an even better known entities regulated in a major country, try UK bookies like William Hill. Current imply probability of Dem / Clinton rating > 70%

  3. Unfortunately there are very few legal options for Canadians (legal being important when dealing with money beyond a token amount, i.e. talking about more than $1k).

    The most efficient indicator (in my humblest of opinions) is the IEM which currently has the Democrats 73% likely to get the most popular vote in the election (so conversely the Republicans 27%). At this rate $1 risked means a $3.70 payout (or $2.70 profit). Doing a cursory scan, Ladbrokes offers 11/4 ($2.75) odds which is actually better than this, but the rest of the sites seem to be offering 9/4 ($2.25) which is a vastly inferior value. Pinnacle is $2.38.

    Either way, my political lens puts Trump above 50% probability to win it. If somebody wants to earn some sort of referral off of me on a legal and reasonably priced site, now’s the time to spam this comment section…

  4. Pinnacle is now +250 ($2.50 profit for every $1 risked) on anybody other than Hillary. I do find their definition to be of higher value than the +275 for the Republicans to win (on other sites). The fact that if she gets indicted (low probability, but not zero) her nomination is effectively nulled out – this is the only reason why I can see Sanders still in the picture.

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