Bombardier paper napkin valuation

Based on the slides on their investor day, looking at their 2020 financial roadmap, if the corporation is seriously able to reach $25 billion in revenues and 7-8% in EBIT, the quick calculation is the following:

$25 billion revenues
* 0.075 EBIT margin
= $1.875 billion EBIT
Less: $750 million interest expense (Assume $10 billion debt at 7.5%);
= $1.125 billion EBT
Less: $298 million (15% Federal + 11.5% QC = 26.5% taxes)
= $827 million net income

At this point they would likely have around 2.3 billion shares outstanding, so this would equate to about 36 cents a share. Just picking a P/E out of the cloud (15) and multiplying gives a $5.40 share estimate, or about 4.2x above existing market value, or about 33% CAGR if we use the full five years starting today.

Of course, for this to happen, a lot of execution risk (technical, marketing) has to be resolved, but management did a fairly good job solving the immediate financing risk – investors and customers no longer have to care whether the company is going belly-up or not (they are not).

I stress this is a total paper napkin exercise. Actual valuations under a more rigorous process can vary by a factor of 10!