Blackberry Q3-2014

It looks like sentiment reached its maximum in mid-December; also just after the earnings release the lowest trade after-hours was at $5.70/share. Clearly the market over-discounted the negative aspect of this quarterly result despite the fact the company’s revenues were well below consensus.

It still remains an interesting business case, whether their existing businesses are viable after shutting down their consumer end. I think their QNX segment has value, but how much is another question. I generally believe their BBM technology is over-hyped and is going to become a “me-too” type product even when ported to other consumer platforms (Android and iOS). It reminds me of what happened to OS/2 when they successfully were able to have Windows 3.1 applications run within the OS/2 operating system – why bother when you can just have Windows 3.1 and not have to mess around other operating systems?

Anyhow, no positions and I will not be taking one. Too many eyeballs are on Blackberry and a lot of those eyeballs are connected to brains a lot smarter than I am.