Here are some estimates regarding benchmarking Thursday’s earnings report for Yellow Media.
(2011 / 2010 / % change)
For the 6-month period of 2011 vs. 2010, we have:
Revenues: $692.1M / $699.8M / -1%
EBIDTA: $366.5M / $402.6M / -9%
Cash Flow from Ops: $199.6M / $293.5M / -32%
Adjusted free cash flow: $206.2M / $273.2M / -25%
For the 3-month period of Q2-2011 vs. Q2-2010, we have:
Revenues: $342.7M / $360.1M / -5%
EBIDTA: $176.5M / $204.0M / -13%
Cash Flow from Ops: $87.9M / $165.8M / -47%
Adjusted free cash flow: $89.2M / $136.2M / -35%
It is this deviation from the above two that show an accelerating decay in projected cash flows. Specifically the EBITDA number is going to be an easy way of determining a hit or a miss – if this number exhibits accelerated decay beyond -17% or so from Q3-2010, then this will not be a “good thing”.
Readers should also be advised that recent releases of information include the impact of the Trader Corporation disposal such that revenues and cash flows from prior statements are not directly comparable without doing digging in the proper documents.
Specifically, Q3-2010 results excluding Trader Corporation is revenues of $355.9M and EBITDA of $193.2M.
So with that, we have the following for Q3-2011:
Better than expected – EBITDA of $175.8M or above;
Worse than expected – EBITDA of $160.4M or below.
Brace for impact.